Sunday, September 25, 2016

Caribbean Worry?

An area of low pressure roughly 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands, has grabbed the attention of the hurricane Center. They have designated it Invest 97.  An Invest is just an area NHC would like to investigate a little further. The number is just used for  identification. A recon plane is on stand-by for Tuesday to check it out.

The satellite imagery suggests the low is trying to get organized with more thunderstorms attempting to wrap around the center of circulation.

It may get the opportunity to do just that over the next few days as it nears the Lesser Antilles.

The path ahead isn't showing any obstacles that could prevent it from growing. There is little shear and Atlantic waters will only get warmer.

Where is it headed?

For the moment, this area of low pressure will continue moving almost due west as high pressure to the north pushes it toward the islands.

Areas from the Windward Islands south through parts of coastal Venezuela need to monitor it closely.

NHC is giving it a 90% chance if could become a depression or a storm over 5 days in the area highlighted in red.

The GFS and ECMWF models appear to develop something either Tuesday or Wednesday of next week in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By then, it should be about 500 miles away from the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Regardless, it could drop some rain across Puerto Rico and adjacent islands as it makes its way west.

Long Run:

Long range models suggest whatever develops could make a turn northwestward and threaten Hispaniola, Haiti, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba.  After that, we have to wait and see what later model runs forecast.

There is NO THREAT at this time for South Florida, but of course as with uncertainties regarding a tropical system, we'll be monitoring.

No comments:

Post a Comment