Asteroid Close Call - by Universe standards

It has been dubbed the "Halloween Fly-by" and nicknamed "Spooky" by scientists. Its official name is "Asteroid 2015 TB145".

This is a recent discovery by NASA, spotted for the first time October 10th. Its making a bee line for our neck of the woods and should pass by, from a safe distance, on Halloween afternoon. It should stay as far away as the moon, it may seem far but by Space Standards, its a close shave. The asteroid will fly past Earth on Oct. 31 at 1:05 p.m.

This Halloween Asteroid is about 1,300 feet wide, and it will supply NASA with plenty of data for research. It will be close enough for all sorts of earthbound instruments to track.

NASA says:
According to the catalog of near-Earth objects (NEOs) kept by the Minor Planet Center, this is the closest currently known approach by an object this large. By the way, the next close Asteroid fly-by will be "Asteroid 1999 AN10". Its about 2,600 feet in size, and will pass about the same distance from earth as the moon is from us (238,000 miles) in August 2027.

The "Halloween Asteroid" should pass just over 300,000 miles away. Even though its close it will not be easy to see. You will need at the very least a small but powerful telescope.

Any Scary Impacts from this Asteroid?
NASA says:  The gravitational influence of the asteroid is so small it will have no detectable effect on the moon or anything here on Earth, including our planet's tides or tectonic plates.

Interesting 48 hours

The forecast over the next 2 days will be a little tough. We are surrounded by many features that could make for a soggy weekend. You can even throw into the mix some tropical activity in the long term.

We begin with a front aiming for us.
This front should stall over South Florida over the weekend. Depending on where it sets up, this will dictate where it will rain.

If it stalls by the Straits... more rain for the Keys and less for us, but if it stalls over Miami-Dade & Broward, the rain will impact the mainland.

Add to the mix, a broad area of low pressure, presently featured as just clouds and rain.

 Its located in the Western Caribbean Sea, loaded with moisture and moving west. 

If it can survive its trek over land, it should emerge across the Bay of Campeche in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

NHC is giving this feature a 20% chance for development over 5 days.

If it can make it there, everyone across the Gulf States should monitor it closely.

For the time being, its expected to drop plenty of rain across Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula.

This may lead to localized flooding, land and mudslides. We'll be watching closely.




Back to South Florida. 
As the front approaches, winds should veer out of the Southwest.

This may give the front a chance to tap into all the tropical moisture related to the broad low. This connection could make for a soggy weekend.

The local NWS office expects the wind to pick up making for choppy seas. This may not be the best of weekends to be out on a boat.

Check out the latest outlook:

INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING SEAS AND
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RISK OF ATLANTIC COAST RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

Keep it tuned to WSVN for the latest.

 

Joaquin: Can South Florida finally breathe easy?

UPDDATE: As of 11am, Joaquin is finally moving north.

Its very difficult not to be concerned when there is a category 4 system a mere 400 miles to our east. Its a big one also with its cloud canopy extending from Haiti/Cuba and throughout much of the Bahamas.

The Central Bahamas have been dealing with "Joaquin's" wrath since early Thursday morning, they are still getting hammered at this hour, and it may not be until tomorrow that the system will finally leave the area.

From e-mails and text messages I've received, it is not a pretty sight with wind, rain, and waves battering the islands with plenty of flooding.

I'm sure when the reports start coming in from the Central Bahamas, it will be devastating. My thoughts are with all of our neighbors to the east.

For South Florida, it appears the much anticipated turn has begun. It started Thursday night at 11 pm when Joaquin stopped moving WSW , slowed down and started drifting due west. By this morning , the movement is now in a NW direction and should eventually aim north later on today. This should finally end the misery for the Bahamas and start taking it away from us as well.

Outside of a few models, most are in agreement Joaquin should stay offshore through its duration.
This is the latest from NHC:

The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the United States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas is decreasing.

However, there is still uncertainty in how close
Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape Cod,
and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane.

A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for Bermuda later today.

What can the US East coast expect?
From NHC:

Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend.

In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding
over portions of the Atlantic coastal states.

Since it appears South Florida is spared, will we see any indirect impacts from Joaquin?

This is what our local NWS office expects over the next few days.

HAZARDOUS SEAS...ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 6 TO 7 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF THE CONTINUING
HIGHER TIDES...THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELL AND
RESULTANT BREAKING WAVES MIGHT WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE BY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NORTHERN
BROWARD COUNTY. ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL
HELP IN REFINING TIMING AND LOCATIONS AND IF AN ADVISORY WILL BE
NECESSARY.