Low in Gulf may stay low

Since the weekend we've been following an area of clouds and rain int the SW Gulf of Mexico. As of early Tuesday morning , NHC is giving it a 50% chance for development during the next 5 days. Down from a high of 60% on Monday.

If it does develop it may do so along the area highlighted in orange. The other area in yellow has a minimal chance for development.

So if it develops, where is it going?
The models are all over the place. The jet stream is pushing a front South from Canada, and its coming down like a train. It should keep the system either in the SW Gulf or posh it into the Caribbean. It may also continue to weaken it. Only a couple of models re-curve the storm back towards Florida by next week.

The front that will keep this system in the Gulf/Caribbean should stall over us and keep us soggy maybe through the end of the week.