Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Low in Gulf may stay low

Since the weekend we've been following an area of clouds and rain int the SW Gulf of Mexico. As of early Tuesday morning , NHC is giving it a 50% chance for development during the next 5 days. Down from a high of 60% on Monday.

If it does develop it may do so along the area highlighted in orange. The other area in yellow has a minimal chance for development.

So if it develops, where is it going?
The models are all over the place. The jet stream is pushing a front South from Canada, and its coming down like a train. It should keep the system either in the SW Gulf or posh it into the Caribbean. It may also continue to weaken it. Only a couple of models re-curve the storm back towards Florida by next week.

The front that will keep this system in the Gulf/Caribbean should stall over us and keep us soggy maybe through the end of the week.

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