Sunday, September 26, 2010

Yet another worry?

Ever since "Matthew" developed last week, most long range models were also suggesting another area of low pressure would develop in the Caribbean Sea. This is worrisome because the favored track for systems developing here is to move either straight towards Florida or move into the Gulf and then head to Florida.

Even if the steering winds keep it away from us, they could push the low across Central America causing large amounts of rain that could lead to devastating floods, land and mud slides.

As I have mentioned in the past, so far this year it appears that the CMC model has been performing the best. It too now shows something developing in the Caribbean Sea and aiming for us. Check out the link below for the latest CMC run. Once its loaded hit the forward button. It goes out 120 hours. It may take you a moment or two to see the swirl developing south of Cuba and then heading for the Sunshine State.

NHC is now confirming the possibility of that happening. They are giving the area of clouds and rain sitting over the Western Caribbean Sea a 10% chance of becoming a depression in the next few days.

This would be a good time to check your preparedness plan just in case. If the CMC does pan out, we may be dealing with a system here towards the end of the incoming week. I hope it's wrong.

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