Tropical Rain

As of Tuesday morning the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea has been classified as Tropical Depression 16. A recon plane will investigate the area later today. The models show it tracking towards us. The plane will get a better handle on its intensity and future growth. It appears that by this afternoon it will become a Tropical Storm.

As of 11 am, all of Southeast Florida is under a Tropical Storm watch.

The system will come for us. We won't have to chase it. It should track up the Florida Keys into Miami Dade, Broward, and exiting Palm Beach .

Models here: http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

This system has so much rain with it that South Florida could see a generous soaking starting this afternoon. Already we've seen isolated pockets of t-storms throughout the area. NWS has issued a Flood Watch for this afternoon. Between Tuesday and Wednesday we could see 4-8 inches of rain with pockets of more.

The Caribbean has become a tropical system nursery. Long range models show yet another disturbance brewing by Friday.

Yet another worry?

Ever since "Matthew" developed last week, most long range models were also suggesting another area of low pressure would develop in the Caribbean Sea. This is worrisome because the favored track for systems developing here is to move either straight towards Florida or move into the Gulf and then head to Florida.

Even if the steering winds keep it away from us, they could push the low across Central America causing large amounts of rain that could lead to devastating floods, land and mud slides.

As I have mentioned in the past, so far this year it appears that the CMC model has been performing the best. It too now shows something developing in the Caribbean Sea and aiming for us. Check out the link below for the latest CMC run. Once its loaded hit the forward button. It goes out 120 hours. It may take you a moment or two to see the swirl developing south of Cuba and then heading for the Sunshine State.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010092600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



NHC is now confirming the possibility of that happening. They are giving the area of clouds and rain sitting over the Western Caribbean Sea a 10% chance of becoming a depression in the next few days.

This would be a good time to check your preparedness plan just in case. If the CMC does pan out, we may be dealing with a system here towards the end of the incoming week. I hope it's wrong.

"A low confidence forecast"

That is the sentiment coming from the National Hurricane Center on Friday morning regarding "Matthew". It appears the system has many factors influencing its future path, and to be quiet honest, the models don't have a good handle on them.

Let's focus on what we know: There is some light shear impacting Matthew and this should keep it in check for another 48 hours. High pressure to the north will push Matthew towards Central America until Sunday, after that, all bets are off.

The UKMET model pushes 'Matthew" into the Western Gulf of Mexico in about 5 days. If this happens, Matthew has to travel over allot of terrain that could significantly weaken it or dissipate it all together. Meanwhile the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS ensemble models turn it to the Eastern Gulf. In this scenario it will have a chance to grow stronger.

Why the discrepancies? Believe it or not, a Monsoon Low is developing over Central America that may drag Matthew into the Western Gulf. There is a front pushing out of Texas as well over the next few days that may shove Matthew to the Eastern Gulf. This is why the cone of uncertainty is so wide by the 5th day. It tries to compromise the wide array of tracks into one.


Worst case scenario for us would be a turn into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico which could potentially spell an impact for Florida by the end of next week.

In the words of the National Hurricane Center: "Significant changes (to the forecast cone) may be required later today" I'll keep you posted.