UPDDATE: As of 11am, Joaquin is finally moving north.
Its very difficult not to be concerned when there is a category 4 system a mere 400 miles to our east. Its a big one also with its cloud canopy extending from Haiti/Cuba and throughout much of the Bahamas.
The Central Bahamas have been dealing with "Joaquin's" wrath since early Thursday morning, they are still getting hammered at this hour, and it may not be until tomorrow that the system will finally leave the area.
I'm sure when the reports start coming in from the Central Bahamas, it will be devastating. My thoughts are with all of our neighbors to the east.
For South Florida, it appears the much anticipated turn has begun. It started Thursday night at 11 pm when Joaquin stopped moving WSW , slowed down and started drifting due west. By this morning , the movement is now in a NW direction and should eventually aim north later on today. This should finally end the misery for the Bahamas and start taking it away from us as well.
Outside of a few models, most are in agreement Joaquin should stay offshore through its duration.
This is the latest from NHC:
The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the United States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas is decreasing.
However, there is still uncertainty in how close
Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape Cod,
and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane.
A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for Bermuda later today.
What can the US East coast expect?
Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend.
In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding
over portions of the Atlantic coastal states.
Since it appears South Florida is spared, will we see any indirect impacts from Joaquin?
This is what our local NWS office expects over the next few days.
HAZARDOUS SEAS...ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 6 TO 7 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TONIGHT.
POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF THE CONTINUING
HIGHER TIDES...THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELL AND
RESULTANT BREAKING WAVES MIGHT WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE BY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NORTHERN
BROWARD COUNTY. ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL
HELP IN REFINING TIMING AND LOCATIONS AND IF AN ADVISORY WILL BE