So far we have had two systems in the Atlantic basin, a hurricane impacting Mexico and Texas and the most recent "Tropical Storm Bonnie" crossing South Florida with some squally weather and rough seas. Up to this moment it is still a quiet season, at least for the mainland, So why so quiet?
We, at the weather office have been noticing how strong the Bermuda high has been so far, digging far South in the Atlantic and its most western edge almost into the Gulf of Mexico. While this system typically pushes tropical activity our way, it is acting more like a huge shield protecting us.
There is also SAL (the Saharan Air Layer) keeping the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere rather dry and making it almost impossible for thunderstorms to form, organize and grow into hurricanes. This Saharan dust is caused by huge windstorms over AFrica, that whip the sand into the mid atmosphere where it is pushed along by strong winds. During its long ride, that can take it all the way to the North American continent, it curbs any and all activity.
As long as these two items remain in place... we may see a hopefully average tropical season of around 10 named storms out of which 6 may become hurricanes, and out of that number maybe two turn into Category threes or above.
Keep your fingers crossed,