Colorado State University has issued their hurricane season outlook for 2020. This is but one of many forecasts to be published by other institutions in the weeks leading up to June 1st.
I caution that not one seasonal outlook will ever tell you when and where a storm will strike, or how strong it will be. It is just a general guideline of activity to help the insurance industry, businesses, and you to get ready accordingly. If you prepare as if we will get hit, then you will be ready for whatever Mother Nature throws our way.
Colorado State University Forecast (CSU)
The team at CSU, once home to famed forecaster Dr. William Gray, is now headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach. They suggest there could be as many as 16 named systems in the whole Atlantic Basin, with 8 spinning into a hurricane and out of that number, 4 could reach major hurricane status. If you compare that projection to what is typical, it suggests an above average year. Last year the total was 18, 6, and 3.
Why this forecast?
Long range outlooks are extremely difficult to put together. It's similar to planning a road trip. You fill up with gas, check your favorite traffic app and get an estimated time of arrival. Once on the road however, congestion starts to slow you down, there's a broken vehicle blocking a lane and then you get a flat tire. Seasonal forecasts can be subject to the same "road blocks" if you will.
One of the main ingredients that forecasters look for, is whether an
El Niño event may take place.
El Niño is a warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. This can disrupt not only marine currents but atmospheric ones as well. Gusty winds high in the atmosphere can weaken or even impede storm formation in the Atlantic Basin during a strong
El Niño. CSU says that
El Niño will not be a factor this season and thus storm development should not be supressed.
Models
A quick scan of models show that since the three month period of Nov, Dec, & Jan, water temps were running about a half degree above average and are forecast to either stay at this mark, or drop even further until the end of the year. This reaffirms the lack of an
El Niño presence in 2020.
Final Thought
Unlike earthquakes that can happen unannounced or tornadoes that can whip up in minutes, a hurricane will never take you by surprise. You will see forecasts sometimes weeks in advance warning you of a possible threat. You at least have the chance to get ready or get out of the way.
This is a great time to review your plans and check with your county to see where your nearest shelter may be. Remember, not all shelters accept our furry family members, so look into that as well.
The official Seasonal outlook from the National Hurricane Center will be released in May. As mentioned above, it will just be a guideline. Stay with us on-air or on-line for the very latest.
We'll keep watching
