tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673886139559616082024-02-15T04:45:42.055-05:00The Phil FactorYour number 1 source for tropical information Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.comBlogger520125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-16554151825624532532022-09-13T18:02:00.003-04:002022-09-13T18:02:53.165-04:00NEW Invest96L to keep an eye on<h4 style="text-align: center;"> The National Hurricane Center (NHC), is monitoring two areas for possible development in the Atlantic. One is worthy of keep an eye on as it could come close to So FL by early next week.</h4><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPnzJi197XfN2ursMfeYfUH__pvGKKYGZ1EUEBTbCTEwzwWy8Bef-d38vS0G6Rnjxes9-OgMGWQAY7QGo9dVAap7mHb8S939N9O_penrF8q1xvD0cYqse5WfFX5nyjSgGXcy6eaNafvCaB8Y0CRieyBEE21wZgbE4zSQED5Fs2oHNLlyoN71wNgBhO/s1920/Blog%20Post%202.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPnzJi197XfN2ursMfeYfUH__pvGKKYGZ1EUEBTbCTEwzwWy8Bef-d38vS0G6Rnjxes9-OgMGWQAY7QGo9dVAap7mHb8S939N9O_penrF8q1xvD0cYqse5WfFX5nyjSgGXcy6eaNafvCaB8Y0CRieyBEE21wZgbE4zSQED5Fs2oHNLlyoN71wNgBhO/w640-h360/Blog%20Post%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p></p><p>It has been deemed Invest96L by NHC. This is an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 96 is a tracking number and "L" stands for the Atlantic basin. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FciJYp-XkAIZyYV?format=jpg&name=small" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="680" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FciJYp-XkAIZyYV?format=jpg&name=small" width="640" /></a></div><p> </p><p></p><p>More showers and storms have popped up within this Tropical Wave. It's roughly 1000 miles East of the Lesser Antilles. NHC suggests that environmental conditions are slightly conducive for additional growth. A tropical depression may form over the next few days.The Leeward Islands should stay alert as it is moving their way. It has a 40% chance for development.<br /></p><p></p><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>Models</b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4rCnxC4HLprztVKXv9tfNmbRZ7FS-20EY_lU5r4lwi3hPDDectRkqt-_7keEFPyzAm7WAGbc03gIhpkwLHA0PNbjAB13RiPvOs_9_tXuXL_ERksMtoO9U0TeFh3n31LcGnu6Gv7LwEdeX9jX808lrk1QHTLGXouHvwowCpfwQrWaQ4XkBFoCL3VEx/s1920/Blog%20Post%203.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4rCnxC4HLprztVKXv9tfNmbRZ7FS-20EY_lU5r4lwi3hPDDectRkqt-_7keEFPyzAm7WAGbc03gIhpkwLHA0PNbjAB13RiPvOs_9_tXuXL_ERksMtoO9U0TeFh3n31LcGnu6Gv7LwEdeX9jX808lrk1QHTLGXouHvwowCpfwQrWaQ4XkBFoCL3VEx/w640-h360/Blog%20Post%203.png" width="640" /></a><br /></p><p></p><p>Very early spaghetti models, suggest a path near South Florida by early next week. Even if the wave does not develop into something stronger, there's a chance it could bring us pockets of heavy rain. Since nothing has organized, there is no center to track it from. Models at this stage of the game are giving us an educated guess. </p><p>This is a reminder we are still in hurricane season and we need to stay vigilant. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">The second area </span></b></p><p>NHC is also keeping tabs on a second wave </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5rEMkTmeC8RcSZcHMul22PmcTJARIKdVorpDqzFz1ZgMRi2CCsVIglMOg9LksIIG9RVBF8M7BYOC3DmrhiIjrCXmv0UeMQaMkGL9zr_vfsBGCmJblbUnCt0HGYrUZ2g-N7Vzmr069Qs8qIfdSELhj2w1RQpQ0PsgRuJlGqLn4Du41CXO9vKu56stI/s1920/Blog%20Post%204.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5rEMkTmeC8RcSZcHMul22PmcTJARIKdVorpDqzFz1ZgMRi2CCsVIglMOg9LksIIG9RVBF8M7BYOC3DmrhiIjrCXmv0UeMQaMkGL9zr_vfsBGCmJblbUnCt0HGYrUZ2g-N7Vzmr069Qs8qIfdSELhj2w1RQpQ0PsgRuJlGqLn4Du41CXO9vKu56stI/w640-h360/Blog%20Post%204.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><p>This one is near the Cape Verde Islands. Showers have diminished plenty and NHC has dropped its chances for organization from 20% to 10% over a period of 5 days. If it's going to develop it will do so in Yellow area.</p><p>We'll be watching</p><p></p><br /><br />Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-5458624198082038442020-11-15T10:38:00.002-05:002020-11-15T10:38:28.621-05:002 Hurricanes in 2 Weeks<h4 style="text-align: center;">Parts of Central America are set to get hit by a second destructive hurricane. Imagine getting hit by not 1 but two category 4 systems in a matter of weeks. This is what will happen to Nicaragua and Honduras as early as Monday.</h4><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAGMVwLyc6gxl2XeOKK3iXIeLXnSuacv7UcYYQ-XK-JfSsBBNL-A0r5ef-YFmwPoOvg7_JfPqVRYa3Q2ePFXEhYEvjA7Xl2m26SvKucQSJfqWjohd3QLyDVX1oMYY5hAeFQfSfkjoZ7TQ/s1200/goes16_ir_31L_202011151225.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAGMVwLyc6gxl2XeOKK3iXIeLXnSuacv7UcYYQ-XK-JfSsBBNL-A0r5ef-YFmwPoOvg7_JfPqVRYa3Q2ePFXEhYEvjA7Xl2m26SvKucQSJfqWjohd3QLyDVX1oMYY5hAeFQfSfkjoZ7TQ/w640-h452/goes16_ir_31L_202011151225.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>The satellite loop shows a very healthy hurricane on its way to becoming a major system shortly. You can clearly see a center spin, with plenty of feeder bands, and some high clouds rotating in the opposite direction as the storm. This is known as outflow. <div><br /></div><div>Imagine the center of the storm as an empty tube of paper towels. Hot moist air enters at the surface or bottom of the tube, feeds the storm, and then exits in the upper levels or the top of the tube. If the tube is not bent or impacted by strong winds, the feeding process goes off without a hitch. The air at the surface spins in a counterclockwise rotation but by the time it exits at the top, its spinning in the opposite direction. This is outflow and it means Iota is running on all cylinders and its not good news for our friends in Central America.</div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it going?</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT31/refresh/AL312020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/143816_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT31/refresh/AL312020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/143816_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>It will move ashore over the same area Hurricane Eta did on November 3rd. It impacted Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua with destructive category 4, 140 mph winds and flooding rains. Hurricane Iota will be an unwanted and unwelcomed repeat performance.</div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">This is what is forecast:</span></b></div><div>Iota will approach Northeastern Nicaragua and Eastern Honduras possibly late Monday or very early Tuesday. NHC says it will be an extremely dangerous Cat 4 hurricane by then.</div><div><br /></div><div>Rain Projections</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>8 - 16" with up to 30" in spots - Honduras, Northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, Southern Belize. This will lead to major flooding, land and mudslides, over an area that is just in its infancy of cleaning up after Eta. </li><li>4 - 12" - Panama & Costa Rica </li><li>3 - 10" - Southern Nicaragua and El Salvador </li><li>1 - 3 with possible 12" is some areas of Northern Colombia.</li></ul><div>Hoping for the best. We'll be watching.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-62426514023138742512020-11-06T08:49:00.000-05:002020-11-06T08:49:44.311-05:00So. Florida in the Cone<p></p><h4 style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">The track of Eta has it moving towards South Florida. It's forecast to make a turn west, but it will be a matter of timing whether South Florida sees a direct impact.</span></h4><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-7X-_BWcFQUZvbymGG7wn_akzDaUvT_Q8pTJsrPbt2UzGjFtlvzbrClyK9OmVPIxvdRILiSp54wqP-5dnIboRrbvpYBMORDhDcOzzGFmKfR1h0CFYqO_VzQ7ETVwUPu46R2vL4aIT4ts/s1200/goes16_ir_29L_202011061015.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-7X-_BWcFQUZvbymGG7wn_akzDaUvT_Q8pTJsrPbt2UzGjFtlvzbrClyK9OmVPIxvdRILiSp54wqP-5dnIboRrbvpYBMORDhDcOzzGFmKfR1h0CFYqO_VzQ7ETVwUPu46R2vL4aIT4ts/w640-h450/goes16_ir_29L_202011061015.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW8C8kspmAlh1bGCdX_6EDaLjwf3aaYPugorJDqyMLCtAjCk1gmgmUBRKaiyszyMaq8H0Ifbbc8MrMhY7ttuFPI8RRXT2KWgQE6uTwEzTwoYyU0yRaySElAobNGOPYfkA1YeGj-RrMDxA/s512/BLACK+WORD+New.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div>The latest:<div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The center of Eta is back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea</li><li>Plenty of rain across Belize and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula</li><li>It is now forecast to restrengthen</li></ul><div>The system will continue to drench parts of Central America until it makes its way to Cuba by the weekend. The Cayman Islands are now under storm advisories as the system should track in their direction.</div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What Next?</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL292020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/125801_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL292020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/125801_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Eta should become a Tropical Storm later today as it soaks up all the fuel from warm Caribbean waters. As it nears Cuba, it will run into high pressure sitting in the Western Atlantic. It will bounce off it and be sent west. When that bounce happens, will dictate when it makes the turn into the Gulf of Mexico.</div><div><br /></div><div>Its intensity <b><span style="color: #ffa400;">should </span></b>remain in check. There are some strong upper level winds across Cuba that should keep Eta from gaining too much strength. But keep an eye on it. This year many systems have intensified just before landfall. In any case, some tropical Storm watches/warnings may be issued as the system approaches South Florida.</div><div><br /></div><div>Presently there is a Wind Advisory in place for Broward County from the Beaches west to I-95 and the same for Miami Dade Co, extending to the Turnpike in Southern Miami Dade. This runs thru Saturday at which time it may get replaced by tropical advisories. </div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">A Rain Event</span></b></div><div>The biggest concern with Eta will be the amount of rain it could drop. Expecting:</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Cayman Islands: 10" - 20" inches with some areas as much as 30" </li><li>Jamaica: 2" - 5" with up to 15" in spots</li><li>The Bahamas & South Florida: 5" - 10" with up to 15" possible along the East Coast </li></ul></div><div>Any additional rainfall over already waterlogged South Florida will lead to flooding. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Metropolitan Broward & Miami-Dade thru next week.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJMLDCW0AQuEJM?format=jpg&name=large" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJMLDCW0AQuEJM?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Bottom line:</span></b></div><div>There's a tropical system moving our way. It may get bounced into the Gulf of Mexico, just unsure as to when it will happen. Even with no direct impact, heavy rain is forecast to move over South Florida. The radar below is live to help you keep track of the rain.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/AMX_loop.gif?1aae486c9701895fd6f1020f4302dbdc" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="600" height="587" src="https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/AMX_loop.gif?1aae486c9701895fd6f1020f4302dbdc" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>We'll be watching</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" style="text-align: start;" /></div><p><br /></p></div></div>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-30479778997578765242020-11-05T09:48:00.001-05:002020-11-05T09:48:21.831-05:00Now we Watch<h4 style="text-align: center;">Weaker Eta still dumping rain across Central America. Now Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas wait for its second act.</h4><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjruNSyiLOw2TOuD3rMEJshM-QR-HgXdsThib-BweeFcGFFaGKcIUe_2XEqs53lfFkkCwf_lsyRdtOh3WupzeRvv09Kxw2ziGIxsGrUL5rPh4NbY3bjHkCyX0MR_SP5RdW0Amoiyh1mIrA/s1200/goes16_ir_29L_202011041225.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjruNSyiLOw2TOuD3rMEJshM-QR-HgXdsThib-BweeFcGFFaGKcIUe_2XEqs53lfFkkCwf_lsyRdtOh3WupzeRvv09Kxw2ziGIxsGrUL5rPh4NbY3bjHkCyX0MR_SP5RdW0Amoiyh1mIrA/w640-h450/goes16_ir_29L_202011041225.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Eta still has a broad spin but it is quickly losing all the checkmarks of having "depression" classification. It should become a a regular area of low pressure later today. It will continue to drench many areas across Central America.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What is Next?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL292020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/085527_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL292020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/085527_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Models indicate that high pressure steering Eta west is leaving the area and moving back into the Atlantic. </li><li>Another spin developing in the Gulf, but in the upper levels of the atmosphere, will begin to push Eta back into the Caribbean Sea. Eventually Eta will re intensify into a tropical storm. </li><li>The track suggests it will cut across Cuba, and as it enters the Florida Straits, it will hit the high pressure system now sitting across the Bahamas. Depending how early or late this bounce happens, will determine where Eta will end up.</li><li>The center of Eta could be anywhere inside the cone, not just where the storm symbol is situated.</li></ul><p></p><p>Its intensity is being set at Tropical Storm, but be ready just in case it decides to get a little stronger on its arrival.</p><p>Even if the system arrives weak anywhere near So Florida, it is still capable of heavy downpours that will lead to the threat of street flooding. NWS may issue a flood watch as their models show the potential for anywhere between 7 to 10 inches.</p><p><br /></p><p>Please stay alert.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-50220306977718882542020-11-04T10:19:00.000-05:002020-11-04T10:19:21.244-05:00Weaker Eta, still packing a punch<h4 style="text-align: center;">Eta Weakening but remains very dangerous</h4><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5L8RY5Y4B8JO5xmx0IPT1VLj1SambBplklSDqN-ppuyWelmMHD1e9RXXVW-RHdRxUsW1DuvSxTuya91NNCb8p315sunqqugInh1dH88iEH67vCnBmO3EO1k2x0V6TE4-3n-GZ6J-naFU/s1200/goes16_ir_29L_202011041225.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5L8RY5Y4B8JO5xmx0IPT1VLj1SambBplklSDqN-ppuyWelmMHD1e9RXXVW-RHdRxUsW1DuvSxTuya91NNCb8p315sunqqugInh1dH88iEH67vCnBmO3EO1k2x0V6TE4-3n-GZ6J-naFU/w640-h450/goes16_ir_29L_202011041225.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>Eta is moving over Northeastern Nicaragua, still looking good on satellite imagery, but its rains have decreased in intensity. It will continue to lose organization over the next two days as it travels over land. </p><p>The experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), say Eta should become a regular area of low pressure in 48 hrs with the surface spin almost gone. The upper spin however, should remain intact. </p><p>What it means: Imagine a full roll of paper towels. The tube in the middle is the center or the eye, and the paper towels represent the rain bands. The paper towels are being used and getting tossed but not all, and the bottom part of the tube has been cut off by the ground, but the top part of the roll remains. This upper part is forecast to regenerate the bottom once over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.</p><p>While Eta's downpours have decreased, it's still dropping plenty of rain across Northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. The threat of flooding, land & mudslides are present even for Yucatan Peninsula, and El Salvador, as well as, Haiti, Cuba, & Cayman Islands.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What Next?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El_O0U1WMAMKU0t?format=jpg&name=large" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El_O0U1WMAMKU0t?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p>If Eta can survive its interaction with land, this is what may play out. Three features are set to determine Eta's path:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>An upper low developing over the Northern Gulf of Mexico</li><li>Jet stream over the U.S.</li><li>High pressure in the Western Atlantic Atlantic.</li></ul><p></p><p>An Upper Low, is an area of low pressure spinning counter clockwise. It will start to nudge Eta towards the northeast and into the Caribbean over the next few days. The jet stream is a river of very strong gusty winds moving west to east. It will eventually add an even stronger push to Eta, sending it in our general direction. High pressure is just east of the Bahamas and will act as a road block to Eta, keeping it in our vicinity. </p><p>This scenario spells more rain for the Caribbean Islands and then possibly South Florida / NW Bahamas.</p><p>At the moment, forecast models do not show it any stronger than a storm if it gets to South Florida. But as you know, intensity forecasting is extremely difficult. You have seen how quickly storms have grown as they near land this year, so keep that in mind.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What is possible</span></b></p><p>As the above three features start to come into play, plenty of tropical moisture will get drawn into South Florida on Thursday and Friday. This will lead to the possibility of heavy rain leading to flooding. The area could see downpours through the weekend. After that, it all depends on Eta's path. If it swings towards the Northern Bahamas, we may see less rain, if it moves over South Florida or even the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, we will see even more downpours.</p><p>This system in the month of November is a reminder that hurricane season is not over. As a matter of fact, hurricane season is a man-made timeline. Systems can brew at anytime of year as long as water temps are 80 degrees or above, this is their fuel. Typically sea surface temps are at their warmest from June through the end of November and thus, we call this hurricane season.</p><p>When and if watches and warnings are issued for South Florida, you should act accordingly.</p><p><br /></p><p>We'll be watching </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-21137922073066169522020-09-11T19:04:00.001-04:002020-09-11T20:06:48.454-04:00Tropical Depression 19<h3 style="text-align: center;">South Florida is under a Tropical Storm Watch and a Flood Watch</h3><p>Twenty four hours ago, this disturbance over the Bahamas had a mere 40% chance for development and that was expected once it moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Yet at 5 pm Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on tropical depression 19.<br /></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ehqj3mkWsAI5f1D?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ehqj3mkWsAI5f1D?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>The depression will track over South Florida Friday night and move into the Gulf of Mexico. Once there,it could turn into tropical storm Sally and aim for the Gulf States.<br /></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqkyyWWoAE70bG?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqkyyWWoAE70bG?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>The area shaded blue is under a tropical storm watch. This means that between tonight and Saturday, winds over 39 mph are POSSIBLE. Not a certainty, put the possibility is there with this depression. <br /></p><p></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqlYAUX0AUM2AC?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqlYAUX0AUM2AC?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Heavy rain is the biggest concern with TD 19. Up to 4 inches are possible in some areas and that could lead to street flooding. All of South Florida is under a Flood Watch.<br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqwfKzX0AIBkDz?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqwfKzX0AIBkDz?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>We'll be watching.<br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-62524981451720306992020-09-11T10:24:00.005-04:002020-09-11T13:51:59.259-04:0096L Close to Home<h3 style="text-align: center;">Friday brings us a healthy disturbance over the Northwestern Bahamas. It is being watched by he National Hurricane Center (NHC) and is forecast to cause pockets of heavy rain across the region. It could become a depression as early as tonight<br /></h3><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>Satellite Loop</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr8WYTBiSQM0wDZUEPsbgD1S8s66gQUcUUnYWQda31ffBywFMIB9ADx9-39yFBgUmmi1vH2HnUnwzYqo4nSL4pbaliWsD3cjMeK-olgYuUSJU7iPOkV_aexEDo10jIMdKBA0JOwAy2VC0/s1200/goes16_ir_96L_202009111147.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr8WYTBiSQM0wDZUEPsbgD1S8s66gQUcUUnYWQda31ffBywFMIB9ADx9-39yFBgUmmi1vH2HnUnwzYqo4nSL4pbaliWsD3cjMeK-olgYuUSJU7iPOkV_aexEDo10jIMdKBA0JOwAy2VC0/w640-h450/goes16_ir_96L_202009111147.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>This is Invest96L. Invest for an area NHC is INVEST-igating, 96 is a tracking number, "L" stands for Atlantic Basin. It could become a depression near South Florida Friday Night.</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Location: Over Northwestern Bahamas 25.0 N 78.0 W </li><li>Winds: Gusts at times to 30 mph </li><li>Pressure: 1013 mb / 29.91 inches </li><li>Moving: West at 10 mph</li></ul><p></p><p>The darker oranges, browns, and even black colors in this loop will show you where the highest cloud tops can be found, which correlate to heavy rain. 96L appears to have plenty of moisture which will be impacting the Bahamas Friday. Some of the rain should start creeping into South Florida by late afternoon and stay over the area possibly throughout the weekend. Saturday could be a wet day with possible street flooding over areas saturated from recent rain.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">NHC Watching 6 Areas</span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><a href="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="800" height="384" src="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 164, 0);">This is a great view of five out of the six systems NHC is following.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 164, 0);">Small bit of clouds just west of Florida is a disturbance </span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 164, 0);">Big blob of clouds over the Bahamas is Invest96L </span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 164, 0);">Swirl in Mid Atlantic is Paulette </span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 164, 0);">Smaller spin SE of Paulette is Rene </span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 164, 0);">Big mass of clouds off Africa is Invest95L. </span></li><li><span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 164, 0);">Not seen from this angle is a new wave over Western Africa.</span></li></ol></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 164, 0);"><br /></span></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="800" height="473" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Chances for development of 96L:</p><p>Look at the orange"X" by the Bahamas. NHC says the disturbance has an 80% chance for organization. Surface observations suggest it could become a depression late Friday. If it doesn't, it should once it moves into orange area in gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure could be forming already. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it headed?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Early model runs suggest a track that may take it as far East as Florida's Big Bend and as far west as Eastern Texas. This entire region should monitor it closely. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Live Radar</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/AMX_loop.gif?1aae486c9701895fd6f1020f4302dbdc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="600" height="587" src="https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/AMX_loop.gif?1aae486c9701895fd6f1020f4302dbdc" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: center;">Stay on top of the downpours with LIVE radar from NWS Miami.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Another Disturbance near Florida</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>On this satellite view, the disturbance is not the big blob of clouds over Texas, but the small strip just south of Mississippi & Alabama. Per the potential formation graphic earlier in this post, it has a 30% chance for development as it drifts SW into the yellow area away from Florida.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">2 Tropical Storms</span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>Paulette</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/091522_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/091522_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Paulette should intensify into a hurricane this weekend and unfortunately aim for Bermuda before making a sharp turn back out to sea. This turn will be due to the jet stream and a high pressure dome coming out of the U.S. We hope this duo speeds up to offer Bermuda some protection.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>Rene</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/084427_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/084427_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Rene will get lost in the steering winds the next few days. It is battling shear and moving over the same territory Paulette traversed. This water is spent of its fuel, not as warm, and thus provides no energy to Rene. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where to Next?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>If it survives the weekend, it will eventually start moving north again being dragged by the same jet that pushed Paulette Away.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Invest 95L</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIXyZ1eQcu_1uqDPT0TcfJUslM-DEVSnutjduyF4TxDVJUPH82mCUzZkhDrMZOUGldcH-jBlhrklUwwUhy3zFxlVZHzsOH_jA2uwo0Bp3q2hyphenhyphenDZSIODQqp8C6AHfBE8tF6v9Ca_34U-5A/s1200/goes16_truecolor_95L_202009111135.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1200" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIXyZ1eQcu_1uqDPT0TcfJUslM-DEVSnutjduyF4TxDVJUPH82mCUzZkhDrMZOUGldcH-jBlhrklUwwUhy3zFxlVZHzsOH_jA2uwo0Bp3q2hyphenhyphenDZSIODQqp8C6AHfBE8tF6v9Ca_34U-5A/w640-h462/goes16_truecolor_95L_202009111135.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>If you refer to the potential formation graphic at the start of the blog, you will see a big red swath in the Eastern Atlantic. This is where 95L is expected to develop. It has a high chance, 90%... that it will become the next named system </p><ul><li>Location: A couple of hundred miles South of Cape Verde 11.0 N 25.0 W </li><li>Winds: Gusts at times to 30 mph </li><li>Pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85inches </li><li>Moving: West at 15 - 20 mph</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it headed?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>When you see a model spread like this, it means they are having a tough time with 95L. Some runs take it towards the islands, while other move it quickly to the north Atlantic. Lets see what actually develops and where, so the models can get a better handle. This is so far away, there is plenty of time to watch.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Lastly, a wave over the West Coast of Africa.</span></b></p><p>It is just starting to emerge over the Eastern Atlantic. Once in the orange area by Cape Verde, as shown in the potential graphic, it will get a 40% chance for growth.</p><p><br /></p><p>Lots to watch, and we'll be watching.</p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-84264879408408635792020-09-10T11:01:00.000-04:002020-09-10T11:01:23.284-04:00Peak of Season, Lots to Watch, & La Niña<h3 style="text-align: center;">September 10th is the peak of hurricane season. This is the time of year when we tend to see the most activity in the tropics, and as we look out into the Atlantic Basin we can see why.</h3><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="800" height="473" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Thursday morning the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its Tropical Outlook, or areas they are monitoring, and the tally is 7.</p><p><b>Lets look at them one by one:</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Yellow X by the Carolinas- Is a disturbance with some shower activity that is expected to fall apart soon. Good news here. </li><li>Yellow X East of the Bahamas- is an area of clouds and rain that will move over the Bahamas & So. Florida over the next 24 hours, with the possibility to deliver more rain. Once it moves into the Gulf it will have a chance to develop as it moves away from us. </li><li>Yellow X in Gulf of Mexico is new as of Thursday morning, Small disturbance moving SW. It has a low chance for development over the next 5 days. </li><li>In the middle of the Atlantic we find two Tropical Storms, Paulette and Rene. No worries from Rene but Paulette could impact Bermuda by Tuesday before it turns north away from the U.S. </li><li>Red X by West Coast of Africa is a tropical wave just moving into the Atlantic Ocean, It has a 90% chance of developing into a depression or a storm in the area highlighted in red. Needs to be watched by the islands. </li><li>Orange area over the Cape Verde Islands-is where NHC thinks another wave in Central Africa may develop once it moves offshore.</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Latest on Paulette</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/083928_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/083928_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>In the short term, Paulette is expected to intensify and possibly impact Bermuda by Tuesday as a category 1 with 85 mph winds.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>In the long term, models show the jet stream pushing along a front with a huge dome of high pressure that will deflect it from the U.S. Keeping fingers crossed all these features will pick up speed and help Bermuda.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">The rest of the Tropics</span></b></p><p>Not too worried about all the yellow and orange areas, however, the red X, needs to be watched. Very Early model runs suggest a developing system near the Islands in the days ahead.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>Euro Model:</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTng-5w592fHAQM1oYNSifuR11gopdjr05xByvgAnxKJ_uyiULGLAJ_4P_qUFYIKwQoFUtfb1zkpNRGJduj8X9e8wDDSQF0eKJrOSsQU-nJ7_a61oc6Hr-i9zlDteK0AsBdHyTItbfLY4/s1024/Daily2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTng-5w592fHAQM1oYNSifuR11gopdjr05xByvgAnxKJ_uyiULGLAJ_4P_qUFYIKwQoFUtfb1zkpNRGJduj8X9e8wDDSQF0eKJrOSsQU-nJ7_a61oc6Hr-i9zlDteK0AsBdHyTItbfLY4/w640-h480/Daily2.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>By September 18th, it shows a small dot south of Haiti/Dominican Republic. This is signaling the start of a depression or a storm.</p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>Canadian Model:</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZBxwen9Py7p-DQXuJHzjOotlE3IZQpuS8In50i50PJ7Q-ckwaJ2hFqeqdhgtjKNpL1lDPZjNHYfVSaZgmAsomqsofGolOVOFF6NNqdhepKsgpvmZ5bF9U-LmA2yAFDrfB1YY4oz-ldnk/s1024/Daily1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZBxwen9Py7p-DQXuJHzjOotlE3IZQpuS8In50i50PJ7Q-ckwaJ2hFqeqdhgtjKNpL1lDPZjNHYfVSaZgmAsomqsofGolOVOFF6NNqdhepKsgpvmZ5bF9U-LmA2yAFDrfB1YY4oz-ldnk/w640-h480/Daily1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>On the same date, this model shows a much stronger swirl around the same geographical area. Anything developing this strong in this region needs to be monitored by everyone.</p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>GFS Model</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFcuhZ2sXLVo-oQ6D9LN8M82RuoCewMGKTJ5P9mzQTYWAUtmIa7cBjeHVAPETY39AOmxYVPvGzSvpPvzuVsx9Q_WznRp4yANkCGyGffLHvTJCAP3jlwWmUS_qFoq8oywBgR54AKdA_wfY/s1024/Daily3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFcuhZ2sXLVo-oQ6D9LN8M82RuoCewMGKTJ5P9mzQTYWAUtmIa7cBjeHVAPETY39AOmxYVPvGzSvpPvzuVsx9Q_WznRp4yANkCGyGffLHvTJCAP3jlwWmUS_qFoq8oywBgR54AKdA_wfY/w640-h480/Daily3.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Also on the 18th, this projection shows a strong system developing but closer to Puerto Rico. </p><p>The bottom line is everyone should monitor the progress of that red X emerging from Africa on this Thursday.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">La Niña Outlook</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/Ocean--Monthly--Difference-from-average-Sea-Surface-Temperature--Pacific--2020-08-00--small.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="620" height="426" src="https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/Ocean--Monthly--Difference-from-average-Sea-Surface-Temperature--Pacific--2020-08-00--small.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>We all know El Niño, a warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. It can cause worldwide storms, droughts and other severe weather events, but it keeps hurricane formation somewhat in check. La Niña, is its sister, a cooling of the Pacific Waters. Unfortunately it does nothing to curtail storm formation in the Atlantic Basin. The newest outlook calls for La Niña to remain through winter. We remain vigilant to whatever may form down the road.</p><p><br /></p><p>We'll be watching</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-28466391812065916652020-09-06T23:29:00.001-04:002020-09-07T09:32:39.968-04:00Paulette Soon?<h4 style="text-align: center;">Labor Day Monday begins with a Traffic Jam in the Tropics and two depressions to watch. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 17 which formed Sunday night at 11 pm and Tropical Depression 18 which organized Monday at 5 am Monday.</h4><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="800" height="473" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Presently there are 4 areas in the tropics being monitored by NHC. </span></b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>One yellow area with a very low chance for organization </li><li>Orange area with a medium chance for growth</li><li>New TD 17. </li><li>New TD 18.</li></ul>If TD 17 or 18, were to turn into a tropical storm, it would be called Paulette. This would set a record for the earliest "P" named system. The present record holder is "Philippe" from September 17th, 2005. <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eg8UY_CWoAMgmgO?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eg8UY_CWoAMgmgO?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>We are almost at the peak of hurricane season and have already see storms A-O. We may run out names this season and may have to resort to the Greek Alphabet to track additional systems. The last time this happened was the record setting year of 2005.</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Satellite Loop</span></b></p></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="800" height="384" src="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>You can see the double spins in the Satellite Loop. Both will be moving to the west/northwest. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is TD 17heading?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhTLfonWAAAJtjC?format=jpg&name=large" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhTLfonWAAAJtjC?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><br /><p>NHC says there could be some issues in the track due to possible interaction with TD 18 by the Cape Verde Islands. This may prevent TD 17 from traveling too far north.</p><p>TD 17 is also forecast to remain as a Tropical Storm. NHC suggests dry air in its path will be responsible for keeping it in check over the next four days, possibly topping off at 65 mph winds in 72 hours. But by day 5, they say strong southerly upper winds known as shear is forecast to weaken the system further.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">New TD 18</span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>Where is it Going?</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhTPgucXcAA4JLX?format=jpg&name=large" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhTPgucXcAA4JLX?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The system will look for a weakness in the Bermuda High, and start turning northward by day 5 in its trajectory. It may reach hurricane status in a few days.</p><p>We'll be watching </p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-85581572135239255062020-08-24T08:50:00.002-04:002020-08-24T08:50:21.261-04:00Tropical Storm Warning - Keys<h4 style="text-align: center;">The National Hurricane Center (NHC), has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Laura will pass to the south of the island chain but some of its effect can be felt across the area.</h4><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Satellite</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7E-nAEoltZxP9zLNkVQa6zkvgK-CvbYv2vhzsCzdDAtHbt865Sa6H-XueoPfVvPc-tGptz7kfoEVjm7UhuGeO9BJfG1qRqr19T3xr2LTRNLAVJBlkDcX1SuULSjJkdRC44hIGXsU9JUk/s1200/goes16_ir_13L_202008241027.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="451" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7E-nAEoltZxP9zLNkVQa6zkvgK-CvbYv2vhzsCzdDAtHbt865Sa6H-XueoPfVvPc-tGptz7kfoEVjm7UhuGeO9BJfG1qRqr19T3xr2LTRNLAVJBlkDcX1SuULSjJkdRC44hIGXsU9JUk/w640-h451/goes16_ir_13L_202008241027.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>Laura has been moving mostly over the southern waters of Cuba with most of the heavy rain over Jamaica and Grand Cayman.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="800" height="331" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgLmObQXoAAEeNk?format=jpg&name=medium" width="640" /> </p><p style="text-align: left;">A report from Eastern Cuba said most of the gusty winds happened around 1 am for a while, but very little rainfall. </p><p style="text-align: left;">The picture shows the sunrise around 7 am Monday morning with mostly dry conditions. Eastern Cuba was spared the wrath of Laura that descended upon Haiti and Dominican Republic over the weekend where rain led to flooding and casualties. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Key's Advisories</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgLP1B0WAAAapyo?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgLP1B0WAAAapyo?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p>Laura will move west with its tropical force winds of up to 65 mph fanning out from the center up to 175 miles. </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>A tropical Storm Warning is in place form Craig Key to Key West. This means that sustained winds over 39 mph are EXPECTED in less than 36 hours. </li><li>A coastal flood watch is also in effect. Tides are running about half a foot above normal levels. High tides may cause flooding of roadways.</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Impact info from NWS Key West Office</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgLbuYsU0AAe6GR?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="600" height="640" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgLbuYsU0AAe6GR?format=jpg&name=large" width="480" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Impacts for Miami-Dade, Broward Counties</span></b></p><p>This area is being squeezed between high pressure and Laura. This combo will keep the region windy to gusty at times with some fast moving downpours through Tuesday morning. Thats when Laura is expected to make its approach into the Gulf.</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>A Gale Warning has been issued for the Coastal Waters where winds can reach 30 mph as well as a Wind advisory for all of the areas East of I-95 in Palm Beach & Broward counties, and East of I-95 and US1 in Miami Dade. </li></ul><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgLiViPXYAAuIsD?format=png&name=small" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="660" height="640" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgLiViPXYAAuIsD?format=png&name=small" width="640" /></a></div><p>Stay up to date on where the strongest rains are located with the NWS radar loop.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/BYX_loop.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="600" src="https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/BYX_loop.gif" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What is Next?</span></b></p><p>Laura will hug the South Cuban Coast for much of the day and finally moving into the Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. There it has a chance to strengthen into a hurricane. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/115514_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/115514_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The remaining impacts will be for Jamaica and Cuba with rain totals near 4 to 8 inches with a few spots receiving as much as 12. Flooding will be a major threat.</li><li>Cayman Islands are forecast to see totals of 2" - 4" with the Turks & Caicos and NW Bahamas between 1" - 2".</li></ul><p></p><p>Its next stop should be Coastal Texas/Louisiana on Wednesday.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Marco</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/092405_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/092405_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Fortunately Marco is losing its punch and not forecast to make landfall as a hurricane but still capable of gusty winds and heavy rain. It will slide across Louisiana and Texas, Monday & Tuesday.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Final Note</span></b></p><p>Today is the 28th Anniversary of infamous Hurricane Andrew which slammed the Homestead area with category 5 winds. Those who lived through it will never forget. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgL8V9pWkAAPANq?format=jpg&name=medium" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgL8V9pWkAAPANq?format=jpg&name=medium" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>We'll be watching</p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-64441994183158336522020-08-23T09:10:00.004-04:002020-08-23T19:17:08.964-04:00Laura Looking Better<h4 style="text-align: center;">Over the last few days we were mentioning how disheveled Laura appeared, as of Sunday morning, that has changed. Laura is looking very healthy.</h4><p>That has been unfortunate, because it has tracked over Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti with torrential rain and howling strong gusty winds. The center moved over Santo Domingo around midnight and has hugged the Southern Coast of Haiti through much of the night.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Satellite</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmxntjdZXu5cP96QIDYucCjKdz8GGLpyGgZW7fNGarauEgV6Bt2Y8bccd2qVr6rhZNfcC59f7iuW-V2ERif_i-Gp_xXWXLBdB6hZkpVzGUB66d5WudY4bTL80R-Q1KYPRQ-1xnoAJWHXg/s1050/67276519.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="1050" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmxntjdZXu5cP96QIDYucCjKdz8GGLpyGgZW7fNGarauEgV6Bt2Y8bccd2qVr6rhZNfcC59f7iuW-V2ERif_i-Gp_xXWXLBdB6hZkpVzGUB66d5WudY4bTL80R-Q1KYPRQ-1xnoAJWHXg/s640/67276519.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>Sunday morning the system is more symmetrical. Notice the circulation with winds rushing in at the surface towards the center in a counterclockwise fashion. They are feeding the center with the moisture it needs. </p><p>Now look at the upper portion of the satellite loop and you will see clouds streaming in the opposite direction... those are the same winds rushing out but in the upper levels of the atmosphere. It's known as outflow. When you have that, the engine is firing on all cylinders.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Track</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114508_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114508_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Models all keep the center of the storm mostly over Cuba. Tropical storm force winds of over 39 mph, fan out from the center 140 miles. Depending on the position of the center as it passes south of Florida, some of those strong gusty winds and rain could impact the Keys.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Next 24-48 hrs for South Florida</span></b></p><p>The Keys: Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Ocean Reef to Key West. This means winds greater than 39 mph, heavy rain, and rough marine conditions are POSSIBLE. This would be the time to finish any preparations you may need.</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Tropical storm force winds are possible for much of Monday until the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico. </li><li>Some strong rain bands with winds up to 50-55 mph are possible Monday afternoon. </li><li>1" - 3" inches of rain are forecast</li><li>Marine conditions will be rough. Large waves can be expected in the south facing shores. </li><li>Tides are running over half a foot above normal. The storm could cause an additional 1 - 2 feet of saltwater flooding at the next high tide. The high tides on Monday will be at 2:13 am and 3:16 pm.</li></ul><p></p><p>Miami Dade and Broward: The impacts should be minimal. As of this update NWS does not expect Marco in the Gulf to have any impact on Laura's Direction.</p><pre class="glossaryProduct"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span face="" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; white-space: normal;">As Laura moves closer to the region, winds are forecast to pick up. </span></li><li><span face="" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; white-space: normal;">Some pockets of heavy rain could move through the area </span></li><li><span face="" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; white-space: normal;">Winds 25 - 35 mph with possible higher gusts during a rain band </span></li><li><span face="" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; white-space: normal;">Even as Laura moves into the Gulf, squally weather may be present through Tuesday.</span></li></ul></pre><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">The Islands</span></b></p><p>Laura's center has been hugging the Southern Coast of Dominican Republic and Haiti with strong winds and torrential rains. This will cause dangerous flooding conditions on Sunday.</p><p>The system has also shifted further west. The center should stay mostly over Caribbean waters rather than crossing into the Atlantic and emerging over the North Coast of Haiti. This should keep the center fed with warm ocean moisture and not have a direct impact with any of Haiti's high terrain. Laura should then track over Haiti, then directly over Cuba for much of Sunday and Monday. The entire island will be impacted. </p><p><b>Impacts:</b></p><p>Heavy rainfall can be expected as the storm moves west. Flooding, land, and mudslides are possible for much of Sunday. </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Dominican Republic & Haiti: Up to 12 inches of rain are forecast </li><li>Turks and Caicos, SE Bahamas, & Jamaica: 1 - 3 inches of rain possible : </li><li>Central Bahamas & Andros Island: Tropical Storm force winds and some heavy rain is possible late Sunday and into Monday. </li><li>Cuba: Conditions to worsen late Sunday. Heavy rain and very strong gusty winds will travel the entire length on the island through Monday/Tuesday.</li><li>Jamaica: May also get squally weather as the system moves north of you.</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What Next?</span></b></p><p>Once in the Gulf Laura could intensify into a category two before making landfall across Louisiana sometime Wednesday. Normally that would be terrible, but a mere 48 hours earlier they would have been struck by Marco an expected hurricane by then.</p><p>Here's is some interesting data regarding Gulf Systems</p><p style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: black;"><strong style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Rare Pair - Two in the Gulf</strong><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></p><ul dir="" style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><li><span style="background-color: black;"><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Laura and Marco would be the </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">third time in history that </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">two n</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">am</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">ed systems were </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">in the Gulf of Mexico </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">at the s</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">ame. </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The others were, Treasure Coast </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Tropical Storm</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> and Cuba Brownsvile Hurricane </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">9/5/</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">1933 </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">and </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">T</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">ropical Storm</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> Beulah and unnamed Tropical Storm in </span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">6</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">/18/</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">1959</span></span></li></ul><p style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: black;"><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></p><p style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: black;"><strong style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Not the first time Louisiana has had more than 1 hurricane hit in a season</strong><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></p><ul dir="" style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><li><span style="background-color: black;"><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">3 times in 1860 ( Hurricanes 1,4,6)</span><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></li><li><span style="background-color: black;"><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">2 in 1893 ( Hurricane #8, Chenier, Caminanda)</span><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></li><li><span style="background-color: black;"><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">2 in 1985 ( Danny & Juan)</span><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></li><li><span style="background-color: black;"><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">3 in 2005 ( Cindy, Katrina & Rita)</span><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></li></ul><p style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><strong style="background-color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></strong></p><p style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: black;"><strong style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Shortest time between two HURRICANE strikes</strong><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></p><ul dir="" style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><li><span style="background-color: black;"><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">If Marco and Laura hit</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> as hurricanes, the previous time gap</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> between hurricanes in Louisiana was 17 days.</span><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></li><li><span face="" style="background-color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hurricane #4 and the Hurricane #6 in 1860. * prior to 1950 hurricanes were not names, unless they were truly devastating such as Chenier and Caminanda. </span></li><li><span style="background-color: black;"><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In general-- The shortest time between two hurricane hitting anywhere in the U.S. was 23 hours</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> in 1933. They were the Treasure Coast hurricane on 9/4/1933 and then</span><span face="" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> the Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane on 9/5/1933. </span></span></li></ul><p style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: black;"><strong style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Last Louisiana Hurricane Impact in August</strong><br style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span></p><ul dir="" style="font-family: calibri, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><li><span face="" style="background-color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Cat 1 Isaac in 2012. </span></li></ul><div>We'll be watching.</div>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-77214220711165197402020-08-22T20:48:00.006-04:002020-08-23T03:11:37.421-04:00Keys Under a Tropical Storm Watch<h4 style="text-align: center;"> The Keys are under a Tropical Storm Watch as of Saturday afternoon. This is due to Tropical Storm Laura forecast to be near the area on Monday.</h4><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgDtZYtXoAEmr1S?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgDtZYtXoAEmr1S?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p>A watch means that tropical storm force winds are possible, along with heavy rain, and storm surge within 48 hours. It doesn't mean it will happen, but it is possible given the proximity of the storm. Now is a good time to prepare for any possible impacts.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgDiXAbXsAIios3?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgDiXAbXsAIios3?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p>The watch is for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas. Northern Cuba is now also under a Tropical Storm Watch. (Not shown in graphic) </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Cone of Concern</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgDgIBdWoAAvNur?format=jpg&name=large" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgDgIBdWoAAvNur?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p>Laura is expected to remain as a storm as it moves over the islands. By Monday, the center should be somewhere in the shaded area. It nom longer includes the Lower Keys.</p><p>The rain bands reach far away from the center and Tropical Storm force winds fan out up to 205 miles. This is why the Watch was issued. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What is possible</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV_nJCiOaN3ZykNrzThadR_yOgXs1ATuUamDn8xLI2OoT63J9yw3CVcPgW2itlOpXIRg4Ac8eoFBHwsK49sSrHj-w8IOQfzRpHOzTyUOts9d8ibwZ2qBcRmgmsMIwV6LkGXEzCeEd5a8g/s2048/Daily1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV_nJCiOaN3ZykNrzThadR_yOgXs1ATuUamDn8xLI2OoT63J9yw3CVcPgW2itlOpXIRg4Ac8eoFBHwsK49sSrHj-w8IOQfzRpHOzTyUOts9d8ibwZ2qBcRmgmsMIwV6LkGXEzCeEd5a8g/s640/Daily1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <p></p><p>The National Weather Service says there is a small potential for on and off gusty winds, heavy rain, and an even an isolated tornado.</p><p>NOTE- NWS says if TS Marco gets any stronger in the Gulf of Mexico, it may slow down the high in the Atlantic that is supposed to steer Laura into the Gulf. This may alter its path and the impacts across South Florida.</p><h4 style="text-align: center;">K<b>eep an eye on Laura until its in the Gulf of Mexico. </b></h4><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Island Impacts</span></b></p><p>Puerto Rico & the Virgin Islands have seen plenty of heavy rain and gusty winds from Laura. Many areas have received between 3 - 6 inches with 8" in spots.</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1qkhGw7vp3fp17-zZv-UOxxdlITbxo_-cF6FFaKUDngWpVf0oa05GNG23xWHcdUP1YgcxZihDCa4ITHRiqJsN-TPnQngSlkf1WLm2sMUsZbbXdf3vPHzWLy3PvcO2lvLOu3jiZ6A5v9M/s1530/radarloop.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="1530" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1qkhGw7vp3fp17-zZv-UOxxdlITbxo_-cF6FFaKUDngWpVf0oa05GNG23xWHcdUP1YgcxZihDCa4ITHRiqJsN-TPnQngSlkf1WLm2sMUsZbbXdf3vPHzWLy3PvcO2lvLOu3jiZ6A5v9M/s640/radarloop.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>The center of Laura is over Dominican Republic and Haiti . It will deliver heavy rain and gusty winds overnight. Haiti will see the impacts moving in early Sunday morning. Forecasts are calling for 4 to 8 inches with some areas up to 12 inches. This could lead to dangerous flooding, land and mudslides.</p><p>Turks and Caicos, Southeast Bahamas, and Jamaica are looking at the potential for 1 to 5 inches.</p><p>Laura is also producing rough seas with large swells expected across the coasts of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti. The swells will push across Cuba, Bahamas, and the Keys over the next 48 hours. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Haiti</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/data/satellite/goes_hat1_1070_m_2020@08@23_00h20m.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="480" src="http://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/data/satellite/goes_hat1_1070_m_2020@08@23_00h20m.jpg" /></a></div><p>The center is roughly 600 km East from Ouanaminthe. The center will be near the Haiti/Domincan border by 2 am. The nation is under an orange alert. Please pay attention to local authorities.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Dominican Republic</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimDUnqXXhx8Hpc7fi3zV1624Hlfl4fvB2lSkr7pEOdp-O97LlH7Io-4AfJYMSRG3nGuadWKaLS3c1F3L7emnGMyn00bARbFq1AG-s8bMI3urdgYnaYV34rwH2p5wnFK3rTUlwrkTT2Z7A/s1047/Daily2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1047" data-original-width="783" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimDUnqXXhx8Hpc7fi3zV1624Hlfl4fvB2lSkr7pEOdp-O97LlH7Io-4AfJYMSRG3nGuadWKaLS3c1F3L7emnGMyn00bARbFq1AG-s8bMI3urdgYnaYV34rwH2p5wnFK3rTUlwrkTT2Z7A/s640/Daily2.jpg" /></a></div><p>All the red areas are under red alert. Expect heavy rain and gusty winds overnight . </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Cuba</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="565" src="http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif" /></a></div><p>For the moment the entire island is under a Tropical Storm Warning. Things will begin to deteriorate from the East Coast westward by Sunday afternoon/early evening.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Bahamas</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/234740_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/234740_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>There are watches and warnings for many of the islands including the Turks and Caicos. Please prepare accordingly as you could be impacted with winds over 39 mph and heavy rain as early as Sunday afternoon.</p><p>I'll keep you up to date, on-air and on-line.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-37811071782262086822020-08-22T09:36:00.001-04:002020-08-22T09:57:12.214-04:00Laura & Marco<h4 style="text-align: center;"> Tracking Two</h4><p>Laura remains disheveled in the Eastern Caribbean Sea while Marco is in the northwestern Caribbean getting stronger as of Saturday morning.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Laura</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Laura shows signs every once in a while of getting its house in oder with better defined surface circulation and more pockets of heavy rain. However, it quickly goes back to being just a big mass of clouds and rain. </p><p>Its organization or lack thereof, will be something to watch the next 48 hours. There is very little shear, or strong upper winds that could keep it in check, this may give it an opportunity to grow. But, it still has plenty of interaction with land areas ahead that should limit that possibility.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Laura's Track</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114754_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114754_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The feature guiding Laura's movement has not changed, and that is a huge dome of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean. It will move west dragging Laura along for the next 3 days until it moves in the Gulf of Mexico. </p><p>Something to keep in mind, a tropical system does not travel in a straight line, they spin as they move forward. This spin will make Laura wobble north and south over the next few days. Once in the Gulf it could briefly reach hurricane status as it moves towards Louisiana. This will only come to pass it Laura can remain a tropical system. It will move over plenty of mountainous terrain from Dominican Republic, to Haiti, and much of Cuba. If any of it is left after that, it may have a chance at reaching hurricane strength.</p><p>If it reaches the Gulf, it could catch up to Marco. Most forecasts suggests they will remain far apart from each other. If they do interact, then maybe the Fujiwara effect may come into play. See my previous post on this. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Impacts</span></b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, & Puerto Rico: Winds over 39 mph with higher gusts at times with the potential for heavy rain for the rest of Saturday. One to three inches with isolated pockets of five inches are possible.</li><li>Later Saturday into Sunday, the wind and rain picks up over Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks and Caicos, as well as the SE Bahamas. Three to six with up to eight inches of rain are possible.</li><li>Central Bahamas & Eastern Cuba could see those tropical storm force winds and the rain on Sunday.</li></ul>Flooding, land and mudslides are a concern for all in Laura's path.<p></p><p>While only the Lower Keys remain in the cone, squally weather may be possible over South Florida on Monday. The overall health of Laura as it nears South Florida, will determine the impacts.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Marco</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen as it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Once there, it could try to reach hurricane status, but as of this moment, NHC suggests it may struggle to do that. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114728_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114728_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>They kept it as a tropical storm in the forecast as of Saturday morning. The northeastern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula may feel some of Marco on Saturday, eventually it will get steered towards the Louisiana/Texas Coastline by the early part of next week.</p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-38101778647559228862020-08-21T09:50:00.006-04:002020-08-21T10:08:47.385-04:00TS Laura & the Fujiwara Effect?<h4 style="text-align: center;"></h4><h3 style="text-align: center;">Hurricane Hunters Find TD13 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Laura</h3><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Overview:</p><p>The image shows a comma shaped cloud pattern just east of the Leeward Islands. The system is exposed to dry air to the south with rain only on the northern side. The structure is also elongated with the center at the surface being hundreds of miles away from the center in the midlevels of the atmosphere. </p><p>Having said that, NOAA recon found TD13 strong enough to be upgraded to tropical storm Laura. This sets a record for the earliest "L" storm. The previous title holder was Luis from August 29, 1995.</p><p><b>Impacts:</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The Leeward Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks & Caicos, & SE Bahamas, the forecast calls for 1" to 3" with some areas as much as 5" </li><li>For theVirgin Islands & Puerto Rico, totals range between 3" - 6". This may lead to flash flooding.</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it going?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_13.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_13.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>There is not one perfect model. If there were we would only need one. Each is tasked with a different parameter to forecast. This is what you see in the cone of concern from NHC which is a combination of all the runs.</p><p>For the next 3 - 4 days, the forecast track remains almost unchanged, with the Atlantic High Pressure system pushing Laura northwest. By the time it nears South Florida, the high retreats and allows the system to turn more to the north. Laura could be in the Gulf of Mexico by then.</p><p>The GFS & UKMET models have the system practically moving over the Caribbean and South of Cuba. This would keep it weak as it would interact with land. It would however cause heavy rain and gusty winds. Flooding would be an issue for our neighbors to the south.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">How strong will it be?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al132020_inten.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="800" height="512" src="http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al132020_inten.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This graph, courtesy cyclone cane.com, shows how strong the system could actually get. The bottom shows hours in time. The forecasts are all over the place with just as many keeping it as a depression as there are intensifying it to a hurricane. A handful push it to major hurricane in 5 days with winds over 111 mph.</p><p>We should keep a close eye on Laura. There could still be many fluctuations in strength and direction. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Now comes the interesting part: The Fujiwara Effect</span></b></p><p>Once Laura is in the Gulf of Mexico, it may come very close to TD14. This may alter their trajectories turning both of them more towards the north-northwest. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What happens if they meet?</span></b></p><p>If they get close enough where their outer rain bands can touch, the larger system absorbs the smaller one. This is known as the Fujiwara Effect. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjupDM4uSz2VzFreRsuaGLpGrEKucIM3jD9iZYXTPy0o_WN7EENO57KKBqoQ1XCDSGdXA8EVmHwbPqcE3ncgrH8fLZKLvefSYG_oL45gv9e1-PsVncRBvlyNVc4d4GRsQ7kLO-LVKzzlto/s483/Daily1.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="362" data-original-width="483" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjupDM4uSz2VzFreRsuaGLpGrEKucIM3jD9iZYXTPy0o_WN7EENO57KKBqoQ1XCDSGdXA8EVmHwbPqcE3ncgrH8fLZKLvefSYG_oL45gv9e1-PsVncRBvlyNVc4d4GRsQ7kLO-LVKzzlto/w640-h480/Daily1.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>The last time this happened was in 2017 in the Pacific Ocean where the larger system, Hurricane Hilary on the right, absorbed the smaller Tropical Storm Irwin on the left. They do not become one huge mega hurricane. For this effect to happen, it would need plenty of open water. IF both TD13 & 14, reach the same region it would be too close to land. It could however, dump plenty of rain across the Gulf States.</p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-18733300873514880182020-08-20T09:26:00.002-04:002020-08-20T09:29:59.399-04:00TD 13 Intensity Woes<div class="separator"><h4 style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;">The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on TD 13. It's proving a bit difficult to forecast how strong it will be down the road.</span></h4><div><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo2eGY5LyW9nC6gn_27JYxYR5NsczEdL_CcwWNkz_OS9G8zQKj5PGlbZqORBfMk4NLvIVBxrIjIiczAUeoLdvYNlinhGhGECxW8j-IWwHKs7S-QiH8l0NfcYYPrv1Ou9VTp0xmz5BAqGo/s1200/goes16_truecolor_13L_202008201015.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo2eGY5LyW9nC6gn_27JYxYR5NsczEdL_CcwWNkz_OS9G8zQKj5PGlbZqORBfMk4NLvIVBxrIjIiczAUeoLdvYNlinhGhGECxW8j-IWwHKs7S-QiH8l0NfcYYPrv1Ou9VTp0xmz5BAqGo/s640/goes16_truecolor_13L_202008201015.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>TD13 is forecast to turn into Tropical Storm Laura late Thursday, but after that, its strength remains uncertain. Some models dissolve it into a wave while others intensify it greatly.</p><p><b>What we know:</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Tropical storm force winds and heavy rain are possible across the Northern Leeward Islands by Friday evening. </li><li>Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could see conditions deteriorate Friday night into Saturday morning. Watches and Warnings may be issued for you later today.</li><li>If TD 13 does not get any stronger than a tropical storm, it is still capable of heavy and gusty winds across Dom. Republic, Haiti, Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, Cuba & South Florida over the weekend.</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Model Woes</span></b></p><p>The atmosphere surrounding TD 13 appears favorable for further strengthening with light to moderate shear (strong upper level winds that could keep it in check). It's also traveling over warm waters.</p><p>Some models like the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research & Forecasting) and HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean Non-hydrostatic) show TD13 reaching major hurricane status in 5 days.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOFR2zLIUfcS5urh8bMgkPqxVH-mG6q9d5psr0l9JW8nzUXwaWYFwKzSOHn9ResFuqXZy2iLE3kaF1qWXoQWOMp6Z7wgMGyVZPhfLa8Ac8s58CBSiyooNcp4ydBOhv9pAQjDXTtm5paSg/s1024/Daily4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOFR2zLIUfcS5urh8bMgkPqxVH-mG6q9d5psr0l9JW8nzUXwaWYFwKzSOHn9ResFuqXZy2iLE3kaF1qWXoQWOMp6Z7wgMGyVZPhfLa8Ac8s58CBSiyooNcp4ydBOhv9pAQjDXTtm5paSg/s640/Daily4.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheqjQL4GL05hWbM5O-aEGELDgQj58lBQe1wlukONAeZ8RPVTSler2YCZPLtOiUAr9xC-_wAAtZDVOqls7oirejnAC6HBR2Io8qVgDlOKbP2eQ_OfVrC17vVuMpkI0J6UVRDF4Z6vzc7II/s1024/Daily6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheqjQL4GL05hWbM5O-aEGELDgQj58lBQe1wlukONAeZ8RPVTSler2YCZPLtOiUAr9xC-_wAAtZDVOqls7oirejnAC6HBR2Io8qVgDlOKbP2eQ_OfVrC17vVuMpkI0J6UVRDF4Z6vzc7II/s640/Daily6.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><br /></p><p>The UKMET (United Kingdom Meteorological Agency Model) and the Global Environmental Multi Scale aka Canadian model, keep it as a storm</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgop5MsSyzqMTKqSdr9DzsCHXmO8hnp24QDUjRzJcJ5mtKFkbFlhUfs8iAk9NDgaKtgYDYdRoz-U160DKqEqEpSECD56SCdL4E0EqOZGYNR18kOqjSXNBLAOai_yGgDV8B-e40q4zSkMi8/s1024/Daily7.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgop5MsSyzqMTKqSdr9DzsCHXmO8hnp24QDUjRzJcJ5mtKFkbFlhUfs8iAk9NDgaKtgYDYdRoz-U160DKqEqEpSECD56SCdL4E0EqOZGYNR18kOqjSXNBLAOai_yGgDV8B-e40q4zSkMi8/s640/Daily7.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is insisting on a stronger solution with the system near South Florida by Monday. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwUdan5XHENwzjfsU4D8C96rzIHlWSJtXtyYV76VevjnpvGyLEBGsYR2UNbuwvo7E94ZrVKbvLPs3W4zdClKX4e2QlIErLHHkj_K3AzFjD-VLEMRJXxyxkpymuZEzKVnTlasc8ubrK3Nc/s1024/Daily5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1001" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwUdan5XHENwzjfsU4D8C96rzIHlWSJtXtyYV76VevjnpvGyLEBGsYR2UNbuwvo7E94ZrVKbvLPs3W4zdClKX4e2QlIErLHHkj_K3AzFjD-VLEMRJXxyxkpymuZEzKVnTlasc8ubrK3Nc/s640/Daily5.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) weakens the system to just a tropical wave. This downward trend could be because of dry air getting in its path from some Saharan Dust. It also suggests high pressure to be fairly strong and possibly push the system south of South Florida and into the Gulf. We are hoping this scenario pans out.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKpV5vwri0nOMOb607U1KOkJ1jof7P2kfkb-bonPvnSYt0Yeo-JNuGUWrtzq-VK5FT0cRdQO4FWyqC-97qkpw4NTWe6X57inaVK-uSKjPdXIqndlqpROeh6MAXmFLFdsRBCib2Lbj7YYw/s1024/Daily2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKpV5vwri0nOMOb607U1KOkJ1jof7P2kfkb-bonPvnSYt0Yeo-JNuGUWrtzq-VK5FT0cRdQO4FWyqC-97qkpw4NTWe6X57inaVK-uSKjPdXIqndlqpROeh6MAXmFLFdsRBCib2Lbj7YYw/s640/Daily2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>Bottom Line: The islands needs to monitor closely. Pay attention to your local authorities. South Florida needs to stay alert. The possibility is high that we may see a tropical system over us late in the weekend or Monday. Unsure how strong it may be.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-63155465247213744062020-08-20T01:01:00.001-04:002020-08-20T01:01:30.561-04:00South Florida in the Cone<h4 style="text-align: center;"> The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 13, Wednesday night.</h4><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef1JwEpWsAEEN-I?format=jpg&name=large" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef1JwEpWsAEEN-I?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p>It organized from Invest98L, a low pressure system spinning in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. NHC says it is already developing feeder bands as it moves west northwest. </p><p>The system should become Tropical Storm Laura on Thursday evening. This would set a record for the earliest "L" storm. The current record holder is Luis from August 29th, 1995.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it headed?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef1SLtkWoAIEyYI?format=jpg&name=large" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef1SLtkWoAIEyYI?format=jpg&name=large" width="640" /></a></div><p>High Pressure will push it quickly to the west and track near the Leeward Islands by the end of the week. Heavy rain is expected there. It should then move close to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti and the Bahamas by the weekend.</p><p>Wind shear will be mostly absent as it travels over very warm waters. This could allow it to grow in strength. Intensity forecasting is very difficult so we need to monitor this closely. </p><p><b>Things to watch:</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>If TD 13 takes a more southward track, directly over the Greater Antilles, it could stay as a weaker system. Unfortunately this could mean a greater impact for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the form of heavy rain that could lead to flooding. </li><li>If the system tracks just north of Hispaniola, it has a chance to grow in strength. Maybe reaching hurricane status.</li><li>Even if this system does not get any stronger, it could drop heavy rain over Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas and South Florida over the weekend thru early next week.</li></ul><div>Please prepare accordingly. Head the advice of local governments. For South Florida, advisories may be issued by the first half of the weekend.</div><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-66890222834919744012020-08-19T09:32:00.001-04:002020-08-19T09:32:43.890-04:00Tropical Trio<h3 style="text-align: center;">Things are really heating up in the Tropics with three areas being watched by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).</h3><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxagkU5Pjzq29IzZqDejFmKQt4hvsAVl-ph8nwqcDeghd2YH-80og1IhGB92L3MCayGtx0_mgRpSW8bR9S77dLRH-4UI7refIXUV8ItNdon3XAa9nggRsTWt1HjiBioTW1UH9H2EG46Ao/s1200/goes16_truecolor_atl-2.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxagkU5Pjzq29IzZqDejFmKQt4hvsAVl-ph8nwqcDeghd2YH-80og1IhGB92L3MCayGtx0_mgRpSW8bR9S77dLRH-4UI7refIXUV8ItNdon3XAa9nggRsTWt1HjiBioTW1UH9H2EG46Ao/s640/goes16_truecolor_atl-2.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>Satellite imagery shows three cloud swirls from the West Coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea, these are the features NHC is monitoring.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Invest97L</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_otC48rEtePANO6yJJTWHDKIt_pYtzhaDhE0u_JbgHjs92ukZUL1P7c_LEdrRObLGAhiHamF4jOHEyZn1MbT93b_IuiUyE_jpLIEDVQ45K51vlgYXDku44SgAvsnGZnFLEvL_qu3UUOY/s1200/goes16_ir_97L_202008191005.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_otC48rEtePANO6yJJTWHDKIt_pYtzhaDhE0u_JbgHjs92ukZUL1P7c_LEdrRObLGAhiHamF4jOHEyZn1MbT93b_IuiUyE_jpLIEDVQ45K51vlgYXDku44SgAvsnGZnFLEvL_qu3UUOY/s640/goes16_ir_97L_202008191005.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>This tropical wave is moving west between 15 and 20 mph with plenty of thunderstorm activity as shown in this infrared imagery. Where you see the darker colors is where most of the heavy rain can be found. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIFeNHCslE2kcIzFGmh5rIEqgwypB8jkIleuI13mnHem75xLWxv0GiXmHgW8Ke6WrBsaQBZ4JWx4qh9ZcGjlHna8zCrd24H0qeR37DVZYpQuqCUqCgIa373gvlN6InPdJ2ouFgt0uNIak/s1280/Daily3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIFeNHCslE2kcIzFGmh5rIEqgwypB8jkIleuI13mnHem75xLWxv0GiXmHgW8Ke6WrBsaQBZ4JWx4qh9ZcGjlHna8zCrd24H0qeR37DVZYpQuqCUqCgIa373gvlN6InPdJ2ouFgt0uNIak/s640/Daily3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Chances for development remain high Wednesday morning, at 80% A recon mission is set for Thursday if need be.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it going?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>Models suggest, once Invest97L nears Central America it will start turning Northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula/Gulf of Mexico. There is the best chance for organization. South Florida will watch where it finally ends up. We may get some rain from it. The timing is still not certain. Could be late in the weekend to early next week. We'll keep monitoring.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Invest98L</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFihp5mWAF5eU8hOFRsFEjCDjCRQS68nYugnSvdeldhKNA_HAUXqVx-UUivigantZ4T8MmpIEm7YMla4TLN_13o1mNUXkWb-bsPjoT3Xk9R8anBWXiBtOg_nzuiCr8ORe-2SWOxcXAibA/s1200/goes16_vis-swir_98L_202008191005.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFihp5mWAF5eU8hOFRsFEjCDjCRQS68nYugnSvdeldhKNA_HAUXqVx-UUivigantZ4T8MmpIEm7YMla4TLN_13o1mNUXkWb-bsPjoT3Xk9R8anBWXiBtOg_nzuiCr8ORe-2SWOxcXAibA/s640/goes16_vis-swir_98L_202008191005.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>Satellite loop shows a broad spin in the Atlantic roughly midway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde. If you could split the system in two, the western sector is where you find most of the rain while the eastern side remains dry at the moment. A NOAA high altitude mission is also on standby for Thursday.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg3YhzzUdo7ucJU01uwZ7i3X7HtBbiNxNgdyeYYbMZkqjEJ1TeYxPmhMllAQP35FWHuZusnIQKPZO9omVjx_CmB0MpwUDUmtYHaoYvjiMy34K5hxd2BlL7noFZxvVdfzRVsDKz3YL0Hvg/s1280/Daily4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg3YhzzUdo7ucJU01uwZ7i3X7HtBbiNxNgdyeYYbMZkqjEJ1TeYxPmhMllAQP35FWHuZusnIQKPZO9omVjx_CmB0MpwUDUmtYHaoYvjiMy34K5hxd2BlL7noFZxvVdfzRVsDKz3YL0Hvg/s640/Daily4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>The chances for development remain unchanged since Tuesday night at 90%. If it organizes it will do so in area shaded red.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it going?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_98.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_98.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>This is the feature that has many of us concerned and rightly so. If these models pan out we could be dealing with a tropical system by the middle of next week. </p><p>Here are the facts:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Nothing has organized yet, so these models are just giving an educated guess. </li><li>Models are split, with some developing a strong system and others keeping it very weak. </li><li>Once it develops, better projections will be issued along with a cone of concern. </li><li>The cone will give us the best idea of where it may end up.</li><li>Plenty of time to watch in South Florida</li></ul><p></p><p>While the worry meter is not low on Invest98L, by no means is it high. This is a great reminder that we are in the most active part of hurricane season with its peak next month. This is the time to calmly check what you need in case Mother Nature sends this storm our way, This goes for everyone from the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">And then there were three</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX5nmG3FzTrYl2Bl_-oJ6HDxFa2B32WAbdVr4eLz5fSuaP1veJfNf9iPubotKHVXJgXAFGuZ2F3CMZas72oVVxqttiZt_E2_6S6q8THrYdRxigb6dxGtjdr0lLLd4e2A5Yn3dDvkFSStM/s1200/goes16_truecolor_eatl.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="571" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX5nmG3FzTrYl2Bl_-oJ6HDxFa2B32WAbdVr4eLz5fSuaP1veJfNf9iPubotKHVXJgXAFGuZ2F3CMZas72oVVxqttiZt_E2_6S6q8THrYdRxigb6dxGtjdr0lLLd4e2A5Yn3dDvkFSStM/s640/goes16_truecolor_eatl.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>This is a tropical wave that is still over the West Coast of Africa. It is a very healthy wave with plenty of thunderstorm activity. It should move offshore late Wednesday.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwPpf1P_abUb1iHeZJIxB3XATwLpANlc1hDckKsjbC87vpgrpcfBGUz1GC7OvGI3tUq9TyQdegCAfAo15J2XRfMBdBU2yB-OOljhHdEXgv4ajm5jPonJLVsZYsNHIjz07XUOICKA_ebsU/s1280/Daily2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwPpf1P_abUb1iHeZJIxB3XATwLpANlc1hDckKsjbC87vpgrpcfBGUz1GC7OvGI3tUq9TyQdegCAfAo15J2XRfMBdBU2yB-OOljhHdEXgv4ajm5jPonJLVsZYsNHIjz07XUOICKA_ebsU/s640/Daily2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>NHC is giving this feature a 20% chance for organization once it reaches the yellow shaded area. No models are available for this wave yet. It's not even an Invest. All we can do is monitor it.</p><p>We'll be watching</p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-9346687199024615832020-08-18T21:56:00.000-04:002020-08-18T21:56:30.244-04:00Two on the Verge<p style="text-align: center;"> The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching two systems on the verge of development on Wednesday.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdhsjDIrHb6tIo2wDORDGCgpa_TfajW8VoltIOX1qC-miUY7UjoRM8UIUGEspjiCD0O8vEy6C9EtIDMsb24TgmZ29pEnZBTAG9LnAkq-j8ap0sbZ-wYSJgTurILjm5uRtzfPU0dL1_T0M/s1280/Blog+Post+7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdhsjDIrHb6tIo2wDORDGCgpa_TfajW8VoltIOX1qC-miUY7UjoRM8UIUGEspjiCD0O8vEy6C9EtIDMsb24TgmZ29pEnZBTAG9LnAkq-j8ap0sbZ-wYSJgTurILjm5uRtzfPU0dL1_T0M/s640/Blog+Post+7.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>The first is a Tropical wave roughly 1000 miles away from South Florida, and the other is an area of low pressure about 2300 miles away from our area.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>Tropical Wave in Caribbean</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqHoNhPU52VUGu7N1Ng9zqYJD3ffIrm9hrimHr6FVMPI-ImsjQKpdVtkHWKjBPc0GffBuj70JYoGa1f8FMiciC0f_j8tIWCV6Ae8RHapFujCOKbhwekQjDTH8bX6eTyytj8kVVvsBzOYY/s1280/Blog+Post+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqHoNhPU52VUGu7N1Ng9zqYJD3ffIrm9hrimHr6FVMPI-ImsjQKpdVtkHWKjBPc0GffBuj70JYoGa1f8FMiciC0f_j8tIWCV6Ae8RHapFujCOKbhwekQjDTH8bX6eTyytj8kVVvsBzOYY/s640/Blog+Post+1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>NHC has its chances for development at 80% over 5 days in the area highlighted. A recon plane is on stand-by for Thursday if needed.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>Where is it going?</b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEialwoHezOPXOXSfZ2FzXR1JJUtSxCTLHm5l59Y4pKrvEWmDFH87TidSBcno0V3R74tcFIOMiee0CAgqX-U7I0JZkcrNPFvlo3ZM5d11xch_0tpVvML0WwMHzNL0nR1JTl-ZNTWfhat_Ts/s1280/Blog+Post+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEialwoHezOPXOXSfZ2FzXR1JJUtSxCTLHm5l59Y4pKrvEWmDFH87TidSBcno0V3R74tcFIOMiee0CAgqX-U7I0JZkcrNPFvlo3ZM5d11xch_0tpVvML0WwMHzNL0nR1JTl-ZNTWfhat_Ts/s640/Blog+Post+2.png" width="640" /></a></div> <p></p><p>If it were to develop, the models show a westerly track through Friday and then a turn to the north by Saturday. As it nears the Gulf of Mexico, some rain may get spun out and sent to South Florida.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>Area in the Atlantic</b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqvkbraCeTcGvANs5FuPM4kIvdzPQvagcAH2QbbUq5Az_kukTBbojTeLgNFyhsEVerdxeLCdRkI5MBCRo3UX8plq-BKSyJAF6_OsmHN04qUeXQNC_fC4Y46q2rjUesetlrcErpHPVXIys/s1280/Blog+Post+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqvkbraCeTcGvANs5FuPM4kIvdzPQvagcAH2QbbUq5Az_kukTBbojTeLgNFyhsEVerdxeLCdRkI5MBCRo3UX8plq-BKSyJAF6_OsmHN04qUeXQNC_fC4Y46q2rjUesetlrcErpHPVXIys/s640/Blog+Post+3.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This area of low pressure Invest98L, has many worried about its future track. For the moment NHC says it may organize in the area shaded red. If it reaches tropical storm status, it will be named Laura. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>Where is it going?</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVuZjQz7b5msU_lh-BZi70mfFytb-GBHBGQvU1BuN2RE050FP1g6ItXXx0R6vrdrloa1YY7U1N5HiHGO2IZN8WNoQSLLNtdkwtfd6OPeGlbFhVNY7KSA6un7-9ardg6667cKKLvbMpYB8/s1280/Blog+Post+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVuZjQz7b5msU_lh-BZi70mfFytb-GBHBGQvU1BuN2RE050FP1g6ItXXx0R6vrdrloa1YY7U1N5HiHGO2IZN8WNoQSLLNtdkwtfd6OPeGlbFhVNY7KSA6un7-9ardg6667cKKLvbMpYB8/s640/Blog+Post+4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Keep in mind nothing has developed yet. Because of that, models are guesstimating at this point. As of Tuesday night, they were thinking the system could go close to the Leeward Islands by Friday/Saturday. After that, everyone should monitor carefully. <br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWPEqadGLCKVl-yuNEAJecGGxNt4Rq4iKNBvlp52YRpDK8Gi9R9ArGmUsAymsvkovu2EAT4ANhRLzAeiesKdLZyrIa6JP5Etgsw_tuvYlshzKM1t4zvtkgprXRXFMfK2tPieuJJrNKEsk/s1280/Blog+Post+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWPEqadGLCKVl-yuNEAJecGGxNt4Rq4iKNBvlp52YRpDK8Gi9R9ArGmUsAymsvkovu2EAT4ANhRLzAeiesKdLZyrIa6JP5Etgsw_tuvYlshzKM1t4zvtkgprXRXFMfK2tPieuJJrNKEsk/s640/Blog+Post+5.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This is a great reminder we are quickly reaching the peak of hurricane
season and we should all be prepared in case Mother Nature sends us
something. It's a great opportunity to review your plans and supplies.</p><p>We'll be watching <br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-55895415888319555582020-08-18T10:47:00.000-04:002020-08-18T10:47:55.612-04:00Gulf & Caribbean Worries<h4 style="text-align: center;">The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring the progress of two areas in the Atlantic Basin.</h4><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Satellite Loop of Atlantic Ocean Tuesday</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj465wU9D1wiuf8gcsjuk-rNYKtSjLSo7E-WRk_HC69-Z_yPhVn9qAz6P_BDTWI_YKPS-DdFFCFJA_whhkPt4b9nie2FqjYX5l_b59W4rg3h6wr2MVEG2VO-ZrAVMbO1jYaYehKyr7-NU4/s1200/goes16_truecolor_atl.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="1200" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj465wU9D1wiuf8gcsjuk-rNYKtSjLSo7E-WRk_HC69-Z_yPhVn9qAz6P_BDTWI_YKPS-DdFFCFJA_whhkPt4b9nie2FqjYX5l_b59W4rg3h6wr2MVEG2VO-ZrAVMbO1jYaYehKyr7-NU4/w640-h332/goes16_truecolor_atl.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>These are great loops because they show the transition between night and day. Between Infrared imagery, that allows us to see systems at night, to visible daytime views. What we have are two tropical features , the first in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, Invest97L, and the other SW of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest98L.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Invest97L</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvbIFF8j4e45iPfOIgZjEQjmDYAdDJVN6F70DbWZQPD64JEboCyK83qli7W0-vy8YfUPQhB5ooThYsVQ1b-QMekgz1gl1C8xRJLv4oLVYrCm1yA5rPp4sSTu0ipAsCFS3Bu8DqODtvVdY/s1200/goes16_truecolor_97L_202008181105.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvbIFF8j4e45iPfOIgZjEQjmDYAdDJVN6F70DbWZQPD64JEboCyK83qli7W0-vy8YfUPQhB5ooThYsVQ1b-QMekgz1gl1C8xRJLv4oLVYrCm1yA5rPp4sSTu0ipAsCFS3Bu8DqODtvVdY/s640/goes16_truecolor_97L_202008181105.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>This wave dropped plenty of rain over Trinidad & Tobago, with impressive overnight lightning and street flooding. Northern Venezuela and the Windward Islands also had downpours from the wave.</p><p>NHC says it's still producing disorganized thunderstorms along with gusty winds. Satellite imagery indicates the axis of the wave is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea:</p><p><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Location: 13.2°N 65.4°W</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px;"> </span><br style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Maximum Winds: 35 mph */-</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Moving: E at 20 mph</span></p><p><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px;"> or 29.79"</span></p><p>97L is still moving a bit fast and not allowing a spin to develop. But NHC suggests that in about 48 hours it will slow down and then possibly develop into a depression or a storm near the Central Caribbean Sea. Chances of that happening are at 60%.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it going?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>Model runs have tracks that take it to the Yucatan Peninsula or Gulf of Mexico. If this comes to pass, outside of direct impacts in those areas, South Florida may get some rain for the early part of next week. As of this moment, we do expect anything more than that. Keep monitoring. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Invest98L</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSRjYfz3zTflSbKIcF71MbqYRTGalk57wrMQLJ6X7TfPTanaegEaOk_s4_qfB962KDLwcNCmKmdqMC20dkVcNvudWgV9OV7WEFSgvDWNzeHZQ-8MQhGGd-jQsh6yxuvWTMKPmDXMU_SbM/s1200/goes16_truecolor_98L_202008181145.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSRjYfz3zTflSbKIcF71MbqYRTGalk57wrMQLJ6X7TfPTanaegEaOk_s4_qfB962KDLwcNCmKmdqMC20dkVcNvudWgV9OV7WEFSgvDWNzeHZQ-8MQhGGd-jQsh6yxuvWTMKPmDXMU_SbM/s640/goes16_truecolor_98L_202008181145.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>This feature, now an area of low pressure, has plenty of us a bit worried. It has lots of warm water ahead of it with very little in the atmosphere to prevent it from organizing. NHC's chances for development are up to 90%.</p><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Location: 11.5°N 37.7°W</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px;"> </span><br style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Maximum Winds: Under 30 mph with higher gusts</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px;"> or 29.79"</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Open-Sans-local, arial, sans, sans-serif; font-size: 20.479999542236328px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br /><p>A depression. or a tropical storm could form at any time. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it Headed?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_98.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_98.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>These are the model runs that have us unnerved. A tropical system may impact, the Leeward Islands, cut across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, and then end up anywhere between the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">One step at a time</span></b></p><p>Lets look at it rationally. I've had texts screaming this is the next Andrew to others suggesting it'll be a fish storm. Here are the facts.</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Until something actually develops, the models are guesstimating. </li><li>Everyone in the path of this possible trajectory, should review their plans and supplies. We are almost in the heart of hurricane season so everyone should be ready. </li><li>Once it forms, a cone will be issued with the best track scenario. This will be our best guide. </li><li>Keep an eye on intensity forecasting. While the cone has improved over the years, strength forecasting is still lacking. These systems can be impacted by many things that can lead to fluctuations in strength. </li><li>Everyone should monitor closely.</li></ul><p></p><p>The entire 7weather team will keep you posted.</p><p><br /></p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-49300783084764649142020-08-17T22:03:00.000-04:002020-08-17T22:03:40.272-04:00Higher Development Chances<h3 style="text-align: center;"> The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is following two areas in the Tropics for possible development.</h3><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW1RHMiFF77inuLim8M9x2geVGE9GV0XkT55wjAZigPyvOSl1Q5zgcmN96rv9uGY5tTqsNKjTw7w-WLChZ3L5KebcKa2B4sOAY__s_zlaIAZrC0aHRYH4QnkTGfFPcibOgCrA5ugMSsX8/s1280/Blog+Post+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW1RHMiFF77inuLim8M9x2geVGE9GV0XkT55wjAZigPyvOSl1Q5zgcmN96rv9uGY5tTqsNKjTw7w-WLChZ3L5KebcKa2B4sOAY__s_zlaIAZrC0aHRYH4QnkTGfFPcibOgCrA5ugMSsX8/w640-h360/Blog+Post+1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Lets begin with the wave over the Windward Islands</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKHoRBqgCXnalB45oFf12oqhLe7C9DvO90FNBVN7CEjJQU_Ebct3aeezEcLB3fh_SPQYQ3Up_qD2GxukvRsdiugj-NW5PGxxgNjjNYAOwHgl7Ul3rBG3_DN9B75wPp_loKWYB7NC1EgIw/s1280/Blog+Post+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKHoRBqgCXnalB45oFf12oqhLe7C9DvO90FNBVN7CEjJQU_Ebct3aeezEcLB3fh_SPQYQ3Up_qD2GxukvRsdiugj-NW5PGxxgNjjNYAOwHgl7Ul3rBG3_DN9B75wPp_loKWYB7NC1EgIw/w640-h360/Blog+Post+2.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This Wave is also known as Invest97L. It dropped plenty of rain over the Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, and Northern Venezuela.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgScEJ3WcUBc9tvPI2XNBoV4dPT0xogoK9aycH5iLPwFBM0b8_fjX_aHhpbKLtuOm9k6cJ-zRgvIqaTME-gJsegVywSKohOp7-2MOZXDyNdW6kWuyMjme-NlerAMK61L3O2m08Am8TZfgs/s1280/Blog+Post+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgScEJ3WcUBc9tvPI2XNBoV4dPT0xogoK9aycH5iLPwFBM0b8_fjX_aHhpbKLtuOm9k6cJ-zRgvIqaTME-gJsegVywSKohOp7-2MOZXDyNdW6kWuyMjme-NlerAMK61L3O2m08Am8TZfgs/s640/Blog+Post+3.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This wave is getting a moderate chance for development as it moves over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzyIHhTuIqCy3vHx2-d35bJbCxbUMrE5jroojqKljGXNzl0FqbyMq8JbSJUpBi2h0MyKsviQ_W9ISG5Yyh9H9-O_4Wg8dkZYELLUc0Z77R4Cvb-NvCoZVV9794L1yot_lyu1mBpLg6MXw/s1280/Blog+Post+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzyIHhTuIqCy3vHx2-d35bJbCxbUMrE5jroojqKljGXNzl0FqbyMq8JbSJUpBi2h0MyKsviQ_W9ISG5Yyh9H9-O_4Wg8dkZYELLUc0Z77R4Cvb-NvCoZVV9794L1yot_lyu1mBpLg6MXw/s640/Blog+Post+4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>Where is it Going?</b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPi_14srup6JYAwnE4v9l3I6bRZPDTHXOoU_a1ETrn9Xae2KXr74bl-LdlEsLxEswHXdkpmOhwg3TIXc6sZDdBbrPL-sDS6ne563sM-SZ1INHebjSqiATsGrOdW0_ucnDy7w4T3Ag9iHs/s1280/Blog+Post+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPi_14srup6JYAwnE4v9l3I6bRZPDTHXOoU_a1ETrn9Xae2KXr74bl-LdlEsLxEswHXdkpmOhwg3TIXc6sZDdBbrPL-sDS6ne563sM-SZ1INHebjSqiATsGrOdW0_ucnDy7w4T3Ag9iHs/s640/Blog+Post+5.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>These early model runs are providing a guesstimate at this point, since a depression nor a tropical storm have developed yet. They suggest a slow northwestward track eventually taking it into the Gulf of Mexico. South Florida MAY get some rain over the weekend depending on hos close it gets to us.</p><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">The Second Wave</span></b><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW5lefnUe4QUDprlJ5YBC9Udk57q7UCAfWI5JL4hQuDdtHRR7B_H7ReRG_JZQ7SQyzVs0SpoRRubsJUF8wJaH9N6yDtIbza5gsAiLZimpuvUBBl1i8rDFyU3uI1S9NBzywsQ6JVKNdQqg/s1280/Blog+Post+7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW5lefnUe4QUDprlJ5YBC9Udk57q7UCAfWI5JL4hQuDdtHRR7B_H7ReRG_JZQ7SQyzVs0SpoRRubsJUF8wJaH9N6yDtIbza5gsAiLZimpuvUBBl1i8rDFyU3uI1S9NBzywsQ6JVKNdQqg/s640/Blog+Post+7.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This disturbance has a high chance for development. Now known as Invest98L, NHC is giving it a 90% chance to become a depression or a storm over the red area over a 5 day period.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>Where is it going?</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl1mDbbvjPRcSq4Yl2sJpsJj_RZ7yMwja542yKxOHxHemvEHdhf3S8eurnE3ZXtFfNGiNK966wQJW1YEqM74i2UX5F5tWfsWTievTeq5q1zcXCRrONDX2GE_FD0iCKErFq4UJq0-5HDpk/s1280/Blog+Post+8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl1mDbbvjPRcSq4Yl2sJpsJj_RZ7yMwja542yKxOHxHemvEHdhf3S8eurnE3ZXtFfNGiNK966wQJW1YEqM74i2UX5F5tWfsWTievTeq5q1zcXCRrONDX2GE_FD0iCKErFq4UJq0-5HDpk/s640/Blog+Post+8.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Models again are just giving an estimate at this point, but they hint at a track towards the Leeward Islands. They should monitor closely as it may be near there as early as Friday. After that, everyone should monitor.<br /></p><br />Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-39777602556238098412020-08-17T10:57:00.003-04:002020-08-17T17:16:54.278-04:00Two to Watch<h4 style="text-align: center;">The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas for development this week. The first is near the Windward Islands and the second is in the middle of the equatorial Atlantic.</h4><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">In the Tropics</span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="800" height="473" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png" width="640" /></a></span></b></div><b><span style="color: #ffa400;"> </span></b><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p>The wave near the Islands is now known as Invest97L. This stands for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 97 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin. The chances for organization stand at 50% over a period of 5 days in area highlighted orange.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Wave by the Lesser Antilles</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzmOMYicgk7uyIUjNvJMhybA29bJtiC6oM3eq-6RIbg5vpmCrjv-C7OUwFV03LJjI9DJDRFWPGbSCWNSKNZDR1hB2ppq7VKjAPeAhJQfWP-8tyMieh-3YUmg5thGW-XtHECtFEM5P9rKU/s1200/goes16_truecolor_97L_202008171145.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1200" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzmOMYicgk7uyIUjNvJMhybA29bJtiC6oM3eq-6RIbg5vpmCrjv-C7OUwFV03LJjI9DJDRFWPGbSCWNSKNZDR1hB2ppq7VKjAPeAhJQfWP-8tyMieh-3YUmg5thGW-XtHECtFEM5P9rKU/w640-h462/goes16_truecolor_97L_202008171145.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>The latest:</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span face="" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 20.48px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Located: 12.7°N 57.3°W</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 20.48px;">Top Winds: 30 mph +/-</span></li><li><span face="" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 20.48px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb</span></li><li><span face="" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 20.48px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Size of Wave: 138 miles</span></li></ul><p>This wave is roughly a few hundred miles to the East of the Windward Islands. It has some thunderstorm activity and is moving west at about 20 mph.</p><p><b>Where is it going?</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>Nothing has developed yet so models at this stage of the game are providing an educated guess. They suggest the system could move over the Southernmost Windward Islands, track across the Caribbean Sea, and possibly emerge into the Gulf of Mexico in the long term. </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Working against it: Presently it's moving too fast and not allowing the center circulation to organize. This will be the pattern thru midweek. </li><li>Working for it: Plenty of warm ocean water.</li></ul><p></p><p>Impacts for the Windward Islands & Southern Leeward Islands will be in the form of heavy rain and gusty winds from late Monday thru Tuesday morning.</p><p>Once in the Western Caribbean Sea, its forward speed is expected to decrease, and the atmospheric conditions will allow it to possibly organize and become a depression/storm.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Wave #2</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZZaWuSI3eOntOgWnCuUbS2F_x9bpceqvS9dPqAB2d8AGI5GxndmzuQhx4FG_5Ed_376bmo_wmJJ4FxP7k4sbGOFS8pifiQ385L0kUZwy107CsbjVoRmf6uDcS4JXZ8YvaSD7tkZ-7LJU/s1200/goes16_truecolor_eatl.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="571" data-original-width="1200" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZZaWuSI3eOntOgWnCuUbS2F_x9bpceqvS9dPqAB2d8AGI5GxndmzuQhx4FG_5Ed_376bmo_wmJJ4FxP7k4sbGOFS8pifiQ385L0kUZwy107CsbjVoRmf6uDcS4JXZ8YvaSD7tkZ-7LJU/w640-h305/goes16_truecolor_eatl.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>This second wave is the small area of clouds just below the Cape Verde Islands. Some Saharan Dust is seen to the north blowing off the West Coast of Africa. As it moves away from the continent and the dust, conditions will become better for it to develop sometime midweek. Its chances for organization stand as of 2 PM Monday,at 70% over a period of 5 days.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Where is it going?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_UQ-3FGL4LVBRQljMSIB6nmDlyDpuZ2lW2jqZ4EIt0hjAGE-vuxUODWmqUulfkX2d6iYRb1HtTfMZPimvf6kJY81QBGTmAwFZ9HZ1uxTEJNZjEMKCsXTUfe22zr1aVg47eEeil2GuzR0/s1024/Daily4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1024" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_UQ-3FGL4LVBRQljMSIB6nmDlyDpuZ2lW2jqZ4EIt0hjAGE-vuxUODWmqUulfkX2d6iYRb1HtTfMZPimvf6kJY81QBGTmAwFZ9HZ1uxTEJNZjEMKCsXTUfe22zr1aVg47eEeil2GuzR0/s640/Daily4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>There are no spaghetti model runs yet. The one model we found this morning was the European, and it places an area of low pressure midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, shown with the red "L", by Thursday.</p><p>We need to monitor both of these systems as the can grow and impact land areas down the road.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">Cape Verde Season</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Cape_Verde_hurricane_track.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="296" data-original-width="800" height="237" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Cape_Verde_hurricane_track.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>This is a stark reminder that we are now in Cape Verde Season, a season within a season. From now through mid October more and more waves will come out of the West Coast of Africa, mover over the Cape Verde Islands (how the season gets its name), and pose a threat to the Caribbean and the U.S.</p><p>I urge you to review your plans, will you stay or go if a storm threatens. Do you have the supplies you need to weather a storm. If not, act now while it's all calm. This way, you'll be ready for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.</p><p>We'll be watching</p>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-75035357979366788412020-08-01T08:43:00.001-04:002020-08-01T10:59:39.727-04:00Isaias battering the NW Bahamas<h3 style="text-align: center;">Isaias battering the NW Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says the hurricane is making landfall on Northern Andros Island and should stay over the Bahamas thru much of the day with heavy rain, strong winds, and a dangerous storm surge.</h3><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><font color="#ffa400">Satellite Loop</font></b></div><div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD1GuVS6DJpfWHT17RbK-KNOg8BN07T-BRejv5lrUA9OKJjzC0ThsqhP-heNPtfO_e0cIX3b4q0hC8JMpmDyR9kixREmuX2f5rdg8Up3w6GFoSsNz3rbXJyGof3rqMxSmGda6c3kWSoYE/s1200/goes16_ir_09L_202008011042.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="451" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD1GuVS6DJpfWHT17RbK-KNOg8BN07T-BRejv5lrUA9OKJjzC0ThsqhP-heNPtfO_e0cIX3b4q0hC8JMpmDyR9kixREmuX2f5rdg8Up3w6GFoSsNz3rbXJyGof3rqMxSmGda6c3kWSoYE/w640-h451/goes16_ir_09L_202008011042.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><font color="#ffa400">11 am Advisory</font></b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/095158_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/095158_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><font color="#ffa400">Isaias winds have come down from 85 to 80 mph</font></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Morning Key Points:</b></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Isaias is looking disheveled. Some dry and shear air has filtered into the hurricane.</li><li>The rain shield has gotten smaller </li><li>Not expected to get any stronger</li><li>As of early Saturday morning, the cone has shifted eastward now starting north of Broward County.</li><li>Very low chance of hurricane force winds over Miami-Dade & Broward</li><li>Advisories remain in place for South Florida</li><li>It's located about 210 miles SSE of Miami</li></ul></div><div><br /></div><div><b>What to Expect:</b></div><div>As the system moves towards Florida, winds should pick up later today, possibly late afternoon to early evening depending how fast Isaias moves. Forecasts call for hurricane force winds to stay mostly north into Palm Beach county and points north. Out of an abundance of caution, a hurricane watch remains in place for Broward county I-95 to the beaches, in case Isaias wobbles west at its nearest approach.</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Tropical Storm Warning remains in place for all of Miami Dade and Broward</li><li>Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Far Southern Miami Dade </li></ul></div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><font color="#ffa400">LIVE RADAR</font></b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/AMX_loop.gif?1aae486c9701895fd6f1020f4302dbdc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="600" height="587" src="https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/AMX_loop.gif?1aae486c9701895fd6f1020f4302dbdc" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>This is live radar out of Miami. It will keep you updated on the feeder bands coming across. For most of Broward and Mimi-Dade , there will be a chance for winds to kick up at times to 40 to 50 as feeder bands move into the area. Heavy rain will accompany the feeder bands and may stay thru Sunday. This may lead to flooding concerns for Broward & Miami Dade.</div><div><br /></div><div>While it appears the worst of Isaias will stay over the Bahamas and track towards the East Coast of Florida, Metro Date and Broward could get strong squally weather later this afternoon and evening. With a hurricane so close, we need to watch it in case it gets closer than anticipated.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>I'll keep you posted</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-35859664696297203612020-07-31T08:51:00.006-04:002020-07-31T11:20:53.169-04:00Isias May Get Stronger<h3 style="text-align: center;">Nothing should prevent Hurricane Isaias from getting stronger. If nothing changes on its present course, it will be a huge rainmaker with winds well over 80-90 mph plus. Unfortunately it will travel across all of the Bahamas in the next few days. We are sending nothing but good vibes to our neighbors to east.</h3><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Here's the latest: </b></div><div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>It's possible it can get stronger. Plenty of warm waters with nothing in the atmosphere to weaken it through the weekend. Shear, or strong upper winds that can impact it may not arrive in time. Some dry air weakened it slightly Friday mid morning but it may not last long.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Heavy Rain: Still lingering over Dominican Republic and Haiti with strong winds, the same for the Turks and Caicos and parts of the SE & Central Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says, these downpours have the potential for LIFE THREATENING flooding. Please be alert and ready to move if asked. Heed the advice of local authorities. Haiti: An additional 4 - 8 inches is forecast, 12 in spots. Turks & Caicos & Bahamas: 4 - 8 inches</li></ul></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Strong Winds: Should be felt across much of the Turks & Caicos this morning. Hurricane force winds will move over SE & Central Bahamas today and NW Bahamas on Saturday. All of the region should have finished their preps. Dangerous storm surge will accompany Isaias.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Eastern Cuba is looking at on and off gusty tropical storm force winds with up to 1 - 2 inches of rain.</li></ul></div><div> </div><h3 style="text-align: center;"><b><font color="#ffa400">South Florida In the Cone</font></b></h3><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><u>We are now in the cone of concern</u>. A reminder, the cone only shows where NHC thinks the center or the eye of Isaias may be. </li></ul><div style="text-align: center;"><b>NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA</b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144952_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144952_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Broward County is now in the Cone of Concern. </div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>A Tropical Storm Warning is now in place for our area from Ocean Reef north to Sebastian Inlet. This means we can <font color="#ff0000"><b>expect</b></font> winds over 40 mph. The wind field of Isaias is huge. Hurricane force winds over 74 mph extend out from center to 35 miles, and tropical storm force winds over 39 mph per hour fan out from center, 205 miles. </li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Hurricane Watch issued from Deerfield Beach North to Volusia-Brevard Co. Line.</li></ul></div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>So Florida is also under a Tropical Storm Watch, which means we <b><font color="#ff0000">could</font></b> see winds over 39 mph starting sometime Saturday afternoon. </li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>If the models hint of any westward shift, additional Watches and Warnings may be issued later today.</li></ul></div><div><br /></div><div><b>What to Expect:</b></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>If nothing changes with the current model runs, the center or eye of the storm should unfortunately be over the Bahamas. <font color="#ffa400">A REMINDER, hurricanes do not travel in a straight line, they wobble, and if it wobbles west as it nears us, we could see worse conditions.</font></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Wind: Most likely will remain around 25 to 35 mph, with the possibility of tropical storm force. We could see those stronger winds arriving Saturday afternoon and subsiding Sunday. </li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Marine: High Surf and dangerous rip currents are likely. On the water, conditions will deteriorate Saturday morning. May improve late on Sunday depending how quickly Isaias can depart.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Rain: Should start to move in late tonight early Saturday. The National Hurricane Center suggests anywhere between 2 - 4 inches. This will largely depend on how close the eye nears us. </li></ul></div><div>Bottom line: BE ALERT. If models keep shifting westward, any additional wobble in the storm and we could be dealing with a direct impact. I cannot stress this enough. BE ALERT.</div><div><br /></div><div>Because the eye of the storm may be close, NHC is thinking of adding a Storm Surge watch for the coast. </div><div><br /></div><div>We'll be watching</div><div><br /></div><div><pre class="glossaryProduct" style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></pre></div></div>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-18714225492993985932020-07-30T08:55:00.005-04:002020-07-30T11:19:27.870-04:00Tropical Storm Isaias<h3 style="text-align: center;">The National Hurricane Center is Tracking Tropical storm Isaias in the Caribbean Sea. This system was upgraded from Potential Storm #9 late Wednesday Night. After its impact with Dominican Republic, Haiti and Puerto Rico, its path will bring to the Bahamas and South Florida.</h3><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="800" height="473" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Isaias is a large storm. Winds of 40 TO 60 miles per hour fan out from the center up to 415 miles. It should impact Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Virgin Islands, Turks & Caicos, and SE Bahamas today with heavy rain that can lead to life threatening flash flooding, land and mudslides. Gusty winds will be spread out through the region.</div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What to Expect</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145222_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145222_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Isaias will move through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and then cross into Dominican Republic today. How much of a disruption this will have on Isaias is still unknown. It may come out a much weaker system once in the Atlantic Waters. Nonetheless, heavy rain and gusty winds should spread into the Turks & Caicos and SE Bahamas later today.</div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">What Next?</span></b></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Models suggest a more disorganized Isaias after its impact with Dominican Republic. The key will be where does the center emerge once in the Atlantic. A more Easterly placement and it could have more of a NW Bahamas heading. If on the other hand it emerges more westerly then a more South Florida route could be in the works. This uncertainty is reflected in the cone, with a slight shift to the east as of 8 am. That may change in either a west or east direction once in the Atlantic.</li></ul></div><div><br /></div><div>This placement will also play a role in determining how strong it will be after its clash with Dominican Republic. If it slows down, it may be able to soak up much needed fuel in the form of hot water. That could give it a chance to strengthen.</div><div><br /></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>For South Florida we are looking at the possibility of a stronger system leaning more to the East, or a weaker system leaning more over us. Either way, this is a huge storm in size. Impacts will be felt hundreds of miles away from the center. We may see advisories issued for South Florida later today.</li></ul></div><div><br /></div><div>Recon is scheduled for today that will give the Hurricane Center a better idea of Isaias' health and its surrounding.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>We'll be watching</div><div><br /></div><div><pre class="glossaryProduct" style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></pre></div></div>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1967388613955961608.post-77359240869058744752020-07-29T08:44:00.001-04:002020-07-29T08:44:44.859-04:00Disorganized #9<h3 style="text-align: center;">Satellite imagery shows Potential Tropical Storm 9 (PTS9) looking ragged, yet holding its own.</h3><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTXv7c28RmU-8C7RcGMGu5bFCSE__O4CHhyBZTPxSBRD5TuiXhSJsSLGeMBWRQen_xmYwudKTM9cDLs38XfTH-0DQcoUiXpzC3R234lZl9uhTrDSxuTUh0nKfCUUvbhijJSNXnnNjROco/s1200/Daily+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1200" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTXv7c28RmU-8C7RcGMGu5bFCSE__O4CHhyBZTPxSBRD5TuiXhSJsSLGeMBWRQen_xmYwudKTM9cDLs38XfTH-0DQcoUiXpzC3R234lZl9uhTrDSxuTUh0nKfCUUvbhijJSNXnnNjROco/w640-h462/Daily+2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">The system remains elongated and tilted in a SSW to NNE angle. The challenge this Wednesday will be for Hurricane Hunters to find the elusive center of circulation so a proper forecast cone can be issued.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">More rain and thunderstorms are developing which is one indicator PTS9, could become a full tropical storm by the name of Isaias.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Latest Data:</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The broad circulation is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. </li><li>Feeder bands extend from the Leeward Islands to the North Coast of Venezuela </li><li>Winds have picked up from 40 to 45 mph. </li><li>Heavy rain persists across the Leeward Islands</li></ul></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b><font color="#ffa400">Forecast Cone</font></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><font color="#ffa400"><br /></font></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114411_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="525" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114411_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Due to the fact there is no organized center of circulation, it is very difficult for models to give an accurate forecast cone. Shown here from NHC, is a highly probable track. Until there's a good fix on the center, the cone will remain uncertain, specially in days 3 thru 5. South Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor closely. Many things can change in the next 24-48 hrs. with the cone.</div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Track Thinking</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>High pressure remains the driving force in pushing the system west. It will remain in place through Thursday.This will place PTS9 near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. </li><li>The system nay get a little stronger before it moves over Dominican Republic and Haiti. </li><li>The high terrain of Hispaniola will have an impact on the system, weakening its structure. </li><li>The high will then retreat late Thurs/early Fri. opening the door for the system to make a northwest turn. PTS9 will also slow down its forward speed. </li></ul></div><div style="text-align: left;">As it travels into the Florida Straits PTS9 will contend with 2 features; Warmer Water & Strong upper levels winds known as shear. The shear could keep it weak while at the same time, the warmer waters could give it some fuel to grow.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Even if it doesn't get any stronger, PTS9 will be a big rain maker. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>The forecast calls for:</b></div><div><div><ol><li style="text-align: left;">Leeward Islands & Virgin Islands: 3" - 6"</li><li style="text-align: left;">Puerto Rico: 3" - 6" with up to 10 in spots</li><li style="text-align: left;">Dominican Republic, parts of Haiti, Turks & Caicos: 3" - 6" with some areas as much as 10"</li><li style="text-align: left;">Inagua Islands: 4" - 8" up to 12" in spots</li><li style="text-align: left;">Windward Islands: 1" - 3"</li></ol></div><div style="text-align: left;">All this rain will lead to flooding, land and mudslides in many areas. Heed the advice of your local officials.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div></div><div style="text-align: left;">Until a center can be found., the forecast is dubious. The track can shift depending on where the center is actually found, strong upper winds impacting the system, and how fast it's moving. For South Florida and the Bahamas, prepare for the possibility of pockets of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds over the weekend. Be prepared for changes to the forecast as new data comes in. This is a great reminder we should be prepared for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">We'll be watching</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div></div>Phil Ferrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12569427742718010672noreply@blogger.com2