Monday, July 3, 2017

New Invest

NHC is watching a broad area of low pressure way out in the Eastern Atlantic. It has been deemed Invest 94L, as it is an area the Center would like to INVESTigate further. So far this low has been sitting still, or moving slowly west, over the last day or so.

It remains roughly 700 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands, at times showing signs of additional thunderstorm formation.

This low is also almost 3 thousand miles away from South Florida. We have plenty of time to see what, if anything, develops.

It could become a depression or a storm over the next few days. It has a 70 percent chance that it could spin up into something stronger, but that growth-window may not be open too long.
 

As it begins to move Northwest, it may develop anywhere in the area highlighted in red. It will have warmer waters with little wind sheer.

It may be able to stay south long enough of dry Saharan Air to its North. We'll be monitoring that. The Leeward Islands should monitor its progress just in case.



If it can somehow garner enough strength to develop, its expected to run into some strong upper level winds in about 5 days that could either weaken it or destroy it.

The area in yellow shows upper winds at the moment. They are blowing at around 20 - 30 mph, but by the weekend they'll be zooming out of the SW at around 50 - 70 mph.

That could cut down the cloud tops of any developing t-storms.




In the eventuality that it does develop,  where is it headed?
Early models are placing it near the Leeward Islands by the weekend. Take these models with a grain of salt.

Nothing has developed yet and since there is no good starting point for the models to use, they can't offer us a good ending point so use this as an educated guess as to where it may be in 5 days.


We'll keep you posted.

2 comments:

  1. Thank you for all your great updates .

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you for the kind words.

    ReplyDelete