Friday, June 9, 2017

More Tropical Rain?

Much of South Florida has seen more rain these last 9 days, than what is average for the entire month of June. The ground is saturated and any additional rain will lead to more flooding.

It appears Saturday and Sunday will get its fair share of downpours, so this soggy mess may not be over.

The reason for the rain is a disturbance basically sitting as a line of clouds extending from Western Cuba, through South Florida, over the Bahamas, and into the Western Atlantic.

This line of clouds is like a magnet drawing in plenty of moisture from the Gulf and dumping it over us.

I am hoping this constant "Train of Rain" weakens a bit by Sunday to give us a break.

Long Range Outlook:
It may be wet for awhile. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, is in charge of looking at long range trends and issuing a once a week weather outlook. It is based on broad scale conditions

They are looking at possible development of a tropical system either in the SW Gulf of Mexico or NW Caribbean Sea, between June 14-20th.

  • On the graphic above, look at the map that says "Week 2". There are two areas highlighted with red and white stripes. 
  • The  ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian model guidance indicate potential formation of a tropical system near those areas.   
  • NWSCPC tweeted Friday afternoon they were moderately confident such a feature would develop.

Moderate confidence of the second Atlantic tropical cyclone of the year forming between June 14-20 near the Yucatan

The reason why I am mentioning this, is that the areas indicated for possible formation,  are areas where most systems develop during the month of June. The typical tracks taken by these system are into Mexico, the Gulf States and even Florida.

We've all seen the problems copious amounts of rainfall can cause without a tropical system.

We surely don't need anymore.  I will keep updating you on this possible formation in the tropics.

All we can do is watch & wait and see what finally happens.

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