What a forecast nightmare for NHC regarding Erika or should I say Error-ka. Just a mere 24 hours ago on Thursday, most of the dynamical models were showing a Category 1 system over South Florida by the early part of next week. Then Mother Nature happened and Erika decided otherwise. As of Friday night, those same models are showing the possibility of Erika falling apart over the weekend.
The 11 pm advisory from Friday night keeps Erika at 45 mph winds. According to the advisory's placement of the center it looks like it made landfall between 8-10 pm.
What we know for sure is that it will continue to dump plenty of rain for Puerto Rico, Dominican, Republic, and Haiti through Friday morning.
Wind will not be a big issue, but the rain will lead to flooding, land, and mudslides.
After that, Erika will hug the Northern Coast of Cuba. If it stays over land it should fall apart, but if it can somehow remain over water there is a chance it could keep it together.
NHC is holding off on issuing any advisories for us, just in case Error-ka, decides to ramp back up over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream that run through the Florida Straits.
As of Friday night, Broward is out of the cone of concern, and only extreme Southern Miami-Dade and the Keys remain. Now just because you are not in the cone doesn't mean you won't get some squally weather, on the contrary it looks like heavy rain may be in store from Sunday through Monday.
Stay tuned, and we'll keep you updated.