We've been caught in the middle of a weak frontal boundary to our east and an upper low to our west.
While typically high pressure is your fair weather friend, this time its trapping moisture over us and keeping us damp.
Rain totals across Mainland South Florida on Monday ranged between half an inch at MIA, to almost 3 inches at North Perry Airport.
The clouds and the moisture will remain across the area for much of today with most of the downpours in the Keys
Heavy rain continues there, as of this writing, Marathon has received about one inch of rain.
Breezy conditions at the beach will keep the threat of rip currents constant at the beach
As far as the tropics are concerned, the area of disturbed weather (surface trough) in the Gulf is still there but dormant if you will. It may start to get its act together on Wednesday, if it does it could keep us gray and damp through next week. This wet outlook is not set in stone but it is a possibility.
This is from NHC's Tropical Discussion:
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF ON WED
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SURFACE TROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW AND NE GULF THROUGH THU
The local weather office is also looking into it and for the time being they will be monitoring the situation as well.
The say the models are still not clear on what will happen. They use as an example the widely different offerings provided by the GFS and ECMWF models.
THE GFS BRINGS THIS LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS REMAINS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION BRINGING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ON TO A DRIER SOLUTION KEEPING
THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THUS ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SURGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. TRENDED THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MAINLY DUE TO BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCIES. HOWEVER...UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
EXISTS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
For the time being all we can do is wait and keep our rain gear handy.
Meanwhile lets add another interesting twist.
A new Tropical Depression sprouted on Monday in the Eastern Pacific just south of Mexico. It is a very weak system with only 35 mph winds, but it will be a rain making machine. Some forecasts are calling for anywhere between 20-30 inches of rain!
RAINFALL...GIVEN ITS SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
If this does happen it will be interesting. Tropical systems that cross from the Pacific into the Atlantic basin are rare. If it does happen will it keep its name?
This is from NHC:
If the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name.
Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.
The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin, then it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area. The last time that this occurred was in July 1996 when Atlantic basin Tropical Storm Cesar moved across Central America and was renamed Northeast Pacific basin Tropical Storm Douglas. The last time that a Northeast Pacific system moved into the Atlantic basin was in June 1989 when Cosme became Allison.
There is also a chance that some of that rain could also make its way to Florida in the long run. It will get interesting in the days ahead. Stay tuned.