Andrea poised for landfall

A recon mission early Thursday morning detected a slightly stronger tropical storm Andrea. Bad news... but models do not expect Andrea to get much stronger. It is expected to to run into very strong upper level winds that should start to weaken it.

Andrea is still expected to come ashore near Florida's Big Bend sometime Thursday evening.

Areas near landfall should expect:

Storm surge:

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT
FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

 Rainfall:

3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS PRESENT AS WELL.

Wind:
Tropical storm force winds with stronger gusts of around 70 mph.


SOUTH FLORIDA:

We will be stuck in Andrea's tail of rain through Friday so expect a very good chance until then. The soaking will come during rain bands moving Northeast.

The weekend should be drier.
Please stay tuned to WSVN Social media of web page, or on-air for the very latest.

Invest 91 Chances Improving

We continue to watch a broad area of low pressure in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This area of clouds and rain seems to have a split personality (in many ways).

• While its producing a large area of rain and wind... its center is not any better organized.

• Most of the clouds, wind and rain are on the Eastern side of the poorly defined center,  the Western side is mostly dry.

• NHC says it could become a depression or even a tropical storm by Thursday... yet its chances for that to happen are only at 50%.

• Most models keep insisting on torrential downpours for South Florida, yet most of the heavy rain has stayed away.

To get a better idea on all of this, and where it may eventually end up....a recon mission is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon ( 2 pm)  if need be in order to find out where exactly the center of circulation can be found. They call it a "Possible Fix Mission".

The models are in fair agreement that whatever develops, should aim for Northern Florida... but plenty of moisture should move here through the end of the week. That could still keep us soggy.

For us, this is what we can expect. As the low tries to get organized, it will pull most of the rain towards the center. This means the higher chances for rain should be in SW Florida.  This doesn't mean we couldn't see some tropical downpours,  just  better chances will be around Naples and Ft. Myers.  The Keys could see some rain as well.

Invest 91 Tuesday Update

UPDATE: As of  Tuesday afternoon. NHC is now giving the low in the Gulf a 40% chance for growth.

As of Tuesday Morning:
We are still following INVEST 91 in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.  It is moving ever so slowly towards the Northeast and is providing the Yucatan, Western Cuba, and the Keys with a constant soaking. 

All the moisture associated with this low is still set to move over us. Its been impacting the Keys since Monday night and is crawling along towards Mainland South Florida. If this blob of moisture makes it over Dade and Broward intact, we can expect some street flooding. I'll be watching it carefully.

The models insist on this feature aiming to North Florida. Even though it will not pass directly over us, it should still keep us on the wet side, so expect high chances for rain through Friday.

The bottom line is that this feature remains highly disorganized and because of that it is tricky to forecast.

As it slowly moves Northeast there is abundant moisture for rain, but just how much remains a mystery.

Some models show 3-5 to 8 inches over the next few days while others show much less. Regardless, we should be prepared for some pockets of heavy rain through the end of the week.

Invest 91

The National Hurricane Center has given the area of clouds and rain near the Yucatan, the designation of Invest 91. This just means its an area they will INVEST more resources, to INVESTigate the area further.

Where is it?

NHC says: A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.


Where is it going?
The area of clouds and rain is stuck between high pressure over the Atlantic, and an approaching front through the Heartland.

This combo is creating an alley in the atmosphere allowing the Invest to move towards Florida. Most models agree on this scenario.





What can we expect?
Right now its just a big area of clouds and rain... that's it. It has a very low chance for development over the next few days so all we can do is watch it. Even if it doesn't get stronger it should keep us rainy throughout the week. Forecast totals suggest an additional 5-7 inches through NEXT WEEK!

By Tuesday:
An area of low pressure will probably develop in the Central Gulf and start moving towards the Tampa area.

By Wednesday:
We should remain rather soupy as more moisture aims for South Florida.

By Thursday:
The heaviest of the rain should be impacting Central Florida but a tail of moisture will still be lingering here with the possibility of more tropical downpours.

By Friday:
Even though the low should be leaving the state by Daytona Beach with the heaviest rains there... models still insist on keeping us soggy through the weekend. Ouch!

Hurricane Season 2013

Here we are, another year... another hurricane season.

For those of you who've been through this before, you know the drill.  Prepare as if we will get a direct hit and then wait for Mother Nature to do her thing.  Hopefully she will be kind to us this year.

For those of you who may be new to the area, welcome.

Hurricane season is Earth's way of maintaining a somewhat average temperature. Hurricanes act like a huge vacuum cleaner, inhaling all the hot air at the surface and shooting it up towards the pole where it cools down and comes back to the tropics at a cooler temperature.  Its just too bad that it accomplishes this through a violent medium.

A hurricane is the world's largest storm, but unlike an earthquake where you get no warning, or a tornado where you may only get a few minutes notice, with a hurricane you will see me on TV sometimes up to a week out warning you its coming. It will never take you by surprise. Having said that, you need to do a few things. Make sure your property is storm ready, make sure you can be self sufficient for a least 3 days, and if you are asked to evacuate... please do so.

Here is a great link from NHC, to help you get prepared.

Hurricane Preparedness

The experts say we can expect:

• A 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
• 7 to 11 of those could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
• 3 to 6 may turn into major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The bottom line is no one, no model, or forecaster can tell how many will make landfall.


Already as if to say, "Here I am!" NHC is looking at a disturbance near the Yucatan and Cuba.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Most models agree if anything were to develop, it would move into the Central Gulf. I hope nothing comes of it.

The bottom line:

• Prepare now to avoid the long lines at grocery stores and home improvement centers
• I'll keep you posted on ANYTHING that hiccups in the Atlantic Basin, here on my blog or on WSVN.com, WSVN Facebook and twitter feeds, and of course every day on 7NEWS.