Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Invest 97L

NEW AREA TO WATCH:

There is an area of disturbed weather by the Lesser Antilles that NHC is keeping tabs on, they have deemed it invest 97L, (Invest for an area they would like to investigate further).

As of this moment there is plenty of clouds and rain covering much of the Leeward Islands.

Puerto Rico should see some of that rain on Wednesday.

This feature has a moderate chance for development, but in about three days, those chances may go up higher.


HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED:

This is the latest from the Puerto Rican Weather office:

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Puerto Rico including the US Virgin Islands until Friday.

Heavy rain can be expected through Wednesday night.

Total rainfall may reach between 3-6 inches leading to localized flooding, land and mudslides.

MODEL FORECASTS:

Where it may end up will be determined by the Bermuda High, whose long range tentacles reach into the Caribbean, Cuba and Florida.

If this high stays put, then the disturbance will move due West across the Caribbean Sea. If it weakens and moves East, then the clouds and rain will move towards the Bahamas.

If this second scenario holds, then we may see some rain here by the weekend.

The models are split about 50-50 on what will happen with 97L. A recon plane is scheduled for Wednesday, in order to get a better idea of the disturbance's structure and health.


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