So I've been working in the yard all day and just sat down for a quick peek at the weather, and lo and behold we've got an area of disturbed weather with a decent chance for development.
Where is it?
Its basically over land over the Yucatan.
It is a tropical wave that has spun an area of low pressure and is accompanied by plenty of cloud cover and rain.
NHC is giving it a 50% chance for development over the next five days as it moves west.
A recon plane is on stand-by for Sunday to check it out if need be.
Where is it headed?
The models are pretty much in agreement this feature will continue to move west throughout the next 120 hours.
Only one moves it into Texas, and that is a statistical model that takes into account all the storms that have formed over the years in this area and averages out their tracks.
Even if it doesn't grow it will dump plenty of rain over Central Mexico. This will lead to flooding, land and mudslides over the region.