As of 5am, it has a well defined center with nominal thunderstorm activity.
It is being pushed west by a huge dome of high pressure.
So what lays ahead?
- For the time being TD4 is moving over warm waters with very little shear and should have a chance to become Tropical Storm Dorian.
- But in a couple of days, it will run into drier air and some shear that should keep the system in check,
- Intensity forecasting is not an exact science, but NHC keeps the system with 45 mph winds over the next 5 days. In a week or so it may be close to the Lesser Antilles.
Plenty of time to watch it.