Sunday, July 28, 2013

Old Dorian, Recon Mission Set for Sunday

A hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the remnants of Dorian today. NHC believes there is a small chance for regeneration.

The following is their message:

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED  TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY.

Huge roadblocks: 
First, their is another spin just to the Northwest of old Dorian.

This is an upper low and should help to keep the remnants at bay.

The upper low will remain in place for at least another 24-48 hours.




Second obstacle:
While the remnants of Dorian are producing more thunderstorms today than over the last 24 - 48 hours, it must still contend with a huge foe...strong upper level winds (shear) coming from the opposite direction.

The map to the right shows us where the shear can be found.

Right around the middle of the screen you'll find the small cloud area that is the remnant of Dorian.

Now focus on the orange lines starting over Florida, swooping down through Cuba into the Caribbean and then moving up just ahead of old Dorian. That is strong wind shear that should prevent it from growing again.

What to expect:

Puerto Rico: Will see on and off showers from the remnants of Dorian as the bulk of the moisture passes to the North.

Dominican Republic: Their weather office says the remnants will pass around 700 miles to the north, yet scattered storms may impact them tonight and tomorrow.

Haiti: As of this writing, their meteorological office is calling for a quiet weather pattern over the next 48 hours.

South Florida: This message comes from our local weather office.
AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...THE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME CONTINUES

TO BE THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE THIS OUTLOOK CHANGES GOING
FORWARD.


3 comments:

  1. nice coverage! thanks!

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  2. Phil I love the way you lay it out so clearly with attention and not hype, yet never ignoring the obvious.

    Problem always with ULLs is they can also ventilate a strong wave which I was worrying on... yet... it's a delicate dance, a balance. Glad you are on top of this as always.

    Very different storms but very subtle similarities. Flossie no Iniki... Dorian or whatever it is is no Andrew but similar patterns.

    http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2013/07/dorian-flossie-similarities-and-cousin.html

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  3. I agree Bobbi, for now all we can do is watch and wait. I hate forecasting waves, or disorganized systems such as this. They can grow fast or fall part just as quickly. Next 24 hours should be telling.

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