Monday, June 3, 2013
The National Hurricane Center has given the area of clouds and rain near the Yucatan, the designation of Invest 91. This just means its an area they will INVEST more resources, to INVESTigate the area further.
Where is it?
NHC says: A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.
Where is it going?
The area of clouds and rain is stuck between high pressure over the Atlantic, and an approaching front through the Heartland.
This combo is creating an alley in the atmosphere allowing the Invest to move towards Florida. Most models agree on this scenario.
What can we expect?
Right now its just a big area of clouds and rain... that's it. It has a very low chance for development over the next few days so all we can do is watch it. Even if it doesn't get stronger it should keep us rainy throughout the week. Forecast totals suggest an additional 5-7 inches through NEXT WEEK!
An area of low pressure will probably develop in the Central Gulf and start moving towards the Tampa area.
We should remain rather soupy as more moisture aims for South Florida.
The heaviest of the rain should be impacting Central Florida but a tail of moisture will still be lingering here with the possibility of more tropical downpours.
Even though the low should be leaving the state by Daytona Beach with the heaviest rains there... models still insist on keeping us soggy through the weekend. Ouch!