Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Why the time change?


We are all familiar with the saying, "spring forward, and fall back", which relates to setting the clock ahead one hour in spring and one back in the fall. But why do we do it? Here's a blog I wrote sometime ago explaining the tradition.


Here is a brief history of this practice:

18th Century:
Way back in the late 1700's Benjamin Franklin suggested that getting up earlier and enjoying the sunshine would help save lamp oil that would be wasted by staying up later at night.

19th Century:
When our country was young and most of the cargo was carried by train, companies needed set time zones so they would know where and when the goods would arrive. Time zones, splitting the nation into 4 parts, began in 1883. Until then, major cities set their own times from local astronomical observations.

20th Century:
By 1908, the House of Commons in England debated to change the time in order to eliminate "The Waste of Daylight". The measure failed.

Here in America, in 1918, congress passed a law making the time zones official for all to use but no time change was issued. That changed shortly thereafter as may countries engaged in World War I. The United States adopted Daylight Saving Time, pushing the clocks ahead one hour in order to conserve energy for the war effort. The measure was so unpopular that it was repealed as soon as the war was over.

As World War II emerged in 1944, we went back into Daylight Saving with clocks set ahead 1 hour. It remained this way until 1945. After the War, it was up to individual states whether to observe Daylight Saving.

By 1966 the Department of transportation was created and it took on the responsibility of handling the nation's time laws. They were confronted with a new problem... Television. How could networks tell the whole country at what time their favorite show would air if everyone was observing a different time zone? Over 100 million people were observing Daylight Saving set by local municipalities and customs, it was a mess.

Shortly thereafter, the Uniform Time act of 1966 was passed which called for the clocks to be set forward and backwards in the Spring and Fall. This new law just insisted that the states keep their times in a uniform fashion but did not force anyone to observe Daylight Saving.

21st Century
In 2007, new start and end dates were issued for Daylight Saving Time. It starts at 2 a.m. on the Second Sunday in March and lasts until 2 a.m.on the First Sunday of November.

As of last check, there are a few places that do NOT observe Daylight Saving. They are: Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and by most of Arizona (with the exception of the Navajo Indian Reservation in Arizona).

Why do we still do it?
Proponents say, it saves energy.  We tend to use less electricity during the summer months because we are home fewer hours.  During this time of year, most Americans are enjoying outdoor activities. This means less electrical usage. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, a poll suggested that Americans liked Daylight Saving Time because "there is more light in the evenings / can do more in the evenings."  They also add that while the amounts of electricity saved per household are small...added up they can be very large.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen

The low near the Yucatan Peninsula which caused all the rainy mess over South Florida on Wednesday, has become Tropical Storm Karen.


Where is it?
It appears the center has threaded the needle avoiding contact with land, making its way into the Gulf of Mexico between the Yucatan and Cuba.

This means its growth cycle will not be interrupted.

It is now moving into some of the warmest water in the Gulf of Mexico known as the Loop Current. This area just Northwest of Cuba and West of Florida is the birthplace of the Gulf Stream Current with temperatures hovering in the mid to upper 80's.  Plenty of fuel for further growth.

What next?


The models suggest it will take a track headed to Louisiana.


A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.


Even though they may see a direct impact, don't let your guard down. On Wednesday we were nowhere near this feature and yet some rain from it ventured here and cause plenty of flooding, Most areas from Downtown Miami South to Kendall and Pinecrest getting between 5 and 10 inches of rain.

This was issued by the Miami Weather Office: A RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.53 INCHES WAS SET AT MIAMI YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.02 SET IN 1936.

Remain alert as more rain will be possible over the next few days and with the ground already saturated, any small amount of rain will lead to very fast street flooding.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Eyes on the Caribbean

I have been waiting a few days to post on the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea. I wanted to see if it would get its act together and if it would impact us in any way shape or form.

Well the time has come:
There is a broad low pressure swirl sitting due east of the Yucatan. Most of the weak cloud banding is to the east of the Low as well as much of the heavy rainfall.

NHC has deemed it INVEST 97L. This means its an area they would like to investigate a little further.

A recon plane is scheduled to check it out Wednesday afternoon.

What we know:
It will dump plenty of rain across the Cayman Islands, Western Cuba, and the Yucatan .

The radar out of Grand Cayman shows most of the heavy rain moving northwest from the islands and into the Yucatan.

The weather office in Grand Cayman says there may be some street flooding possible if the rain sticks around much longer.

The center should move into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.

Where is it headed?
Once in the Gulf, there is plenty of hot water that could provide the energy it needs to get stronger. By Friday it should run into the jet stream moving west to east. and it should get pushed anywhere between Louisiana to Northern Florida.


What can we expect?
We will stay away from any direct impacts, but plenty of surrounding moisture could get pushed our way.

Most of the rain is staying east of the center so if nothing changes, we should see some of it getting displaced here in the upcoming days.

Under this scenario there will be a chance for rain through Sunday, maybe into the early part of next week.

I'll keep you posted.


Tuesday, September 10, 2013

The Peak of Hurricane Season

September 10th marks the high point of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin, the midway point if you will of the season.  Lets hope the second half is just as quiet as the first.

This year has been rather dull in spite of all the high projections made at the start of the season.

So far we have seen 8 systems and all have been tropical storms, yet there is something interesting about the system we are presently tracking.

The Latest "First Hurricane"
The latest "first-hurricane" to manifest itself during the satellite era was Gustav on September 11th of 2002. It reached hurricane status at 8am.

As of Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Humberto is in the Far Eastern Atlantic trying hard not to make history. It is forecast to become a hurricane later today keeping the old record intact. We'll be following closely.


This is the forecast track for Humberto:


Back from the Dead
Something else we are keeping tabs on is Gabrielle, back from the dead.  NHC says the remnants have regenerated and are back as a tropical storm aiming for Bermuda.



This is the forecast track for Gabrielle:









Sunday, September 8, 2013

Could we see the 1st Atlantic Hurricane for 2013?

It has been a rather quiet year as far as the tropics are concerned. There have only been 7 systems named and none have reached hurricane status. This is great news.

Now we start the work week with a brand new depression that promises to intensify rather quickly and maybe reach hurricane intensity by Wednesday.


This is Tropical Depression #9. NHC has had it in its sights for quite a while monitoring it for days, even before it moved off the West Coast of Africa.


Models indicate it may become Tropical Storm "Humberto" on Monday and maybe reach hurricane strength by midweek. It will impact the Cape Verde Islands with some wind and rain, but after that it should only be a worry for the shipping lanes.

HURRICANE FACTOID
If this season ended with just one hurricane, it would rank as one of the most hurricane free years in recorded history.

Here are some of the most notable seasons:
YEAR              NUMBER OF HURRICANES
1925                                     1
1905                                     1
1914                                     0
1904                                     0

Of course back then there were no satellites, so the possibility exists of many storms having gone undetected.

REALITY CHECK:
We are almost at the halfway mark for the season. The peak of activity is the 10th of September, so there is still a second half to go. NHC still expects more systems to develop in the coming months, so please do not let your guard down. But wouldn't it be great if we were to finish with a quiet year? Keep those fingers crossed.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Watching 5 areas, including Gabrielle

Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed from an area of low pressure in the Eastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. Since its birth, it has not looked impressive on satellite imagery.

Most of the alleged tropical storm force winds remain tightly packed near the illusive center of circulation.  At times there have been moments and flurries of activity that suggest strengthening, but most of the thunderstorms are to the Northeast of the center.

It does have good outflow in the upper levels, but for the time being, there are no signs of further organization.

Meanwhile, the center is getting harder and harder to detect.

NHC sent a recon plane to get a better handle on this system and as of Thursday morning, Gabrielle has been downgraded to a depression.



FUTURE TRACK:
Where it will go if it survives is more certain.

High pressure to its East and the jet stream to its NW, will carry what is left of "Gabrielle" northwest and into Hispaniola


For now, the islands will be dealing with tropical downpours.

IN THE SHORT TERM:
Heavy rains continue across Puerto Rico.

  • A Flash Flood warning is in place 
  • 3-6 inches of rain are possible through Friday, with some areas getting as much as 12"
The Dominican Republic is on alert as they too may get heavy downpours

  • A land and mudslide watch is in place

MORE ACTIVITY:
Besides weak Gabrielle, there are four other areas NHC is watching.



From the Gulf to the Atlantic:

  • There is an elongated area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche.  Because it is moving over warm waters, NHC gives it a 30% chance it could develop into a depression or a storm as it aims for Central Mexico.
  • Right next door to Gabrielle is a Tropical Wave . NHC gives it a 20% chance that it could turn into a mature tropical system in about 5 days. Right now, its proximity to Gabrielle is hindering its growth potential.
  • A Tropical Wave roughly 500 miles West of the Cape Verde islands is showing some signs of life. NHC keeps its chances at 10% over the next 5 days.

But we are not done: (NOT PICTURED) Most models suggest a disturbance over Africa will move into the Atlantic waters in a few days with a decent chance for organization. NHC is already giving it a 30% chance for growth once it moves into the Eastern Atlantic waters.




Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Invest 97L

NEW AREA TO WATCH:

There is an area of disturbed weather by the Lesser Antilles that NHC is keeping tabs on, they have deemed it invest 97L, (Invest for an area they would like to investigate further).

As of this moment there is plenty of clouds and rain covering much of the Leeward Islands.

Puerto Rico should see some of that rain on Wednesday.

This feature has a moderate chance for development, but in about three days, those chances may go up higher.


HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED:

This is the latest from the Puerto Rican Weather office:

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Puerto Rico including the US Virgin Islands until Friday.

Heavy rain can be expected through Wednesday night.

Total rainfall may reach between 3-6 inches leading to localized flooding, land and mudslides.

MODEL FORECASTS:

Where it may end up will be determined by the Bermuda High, whose long range tentacles reach into the Caribbean, Cuba and Florida.

If this high stays put, then the disturbance will move due West across the Caribbean Sea. If it weakens and moves East, then the clouds and rain will move towards the Bahamas.

If this second scenario holds, then we may see some rain here by the weekend.

The models are split about 50-50 on what will happen with 97L. A recon plane is scheduled for Wednesday, in order to get a better idea of the disturbance's structure and health.


Monday, August 26, 2013

T.S. Fernand

Heavy rain and gusty winds will impact Central Mexico on Monday from a storm that brewed up over the weekend. Despite traversing over land and meeting some unfavorable conditions early in its development, this weak wave managed to grow into a named system.


Even though this is a weak system with top winds of around 45 mph, it will be the rain that will cause much of the trouble.

NHC says:

RAINFALL...FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND
EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR
12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.



We expect Fernand to weaken further as it makes its way inland across Mexico.


Saturday, August 24, 2013

A Tropical System Aiming for Mexico

So I've been working in the yard all day and just sat down for a quick peek at the weather, and lo and behold we've got an area of disturbed weather with a decent chance for development.

Where is it?
Its basically over land over the Yucatan.

 It is a tropical wave that has spun an area of low pressure and is accompanied by plenty of cloud cover and rain.

What next?
NHC is giving it a 50% chance for development over the next five days as it moves west.

A recon plane is on stand-by for Sunday to check it out if need be.

Where is it headed?
The models are pretty much in agreement this feature will continue to move west throughout the next 120 hours.

Only one moves it into Texas, and that is a statistical model that takes into account all the storms that have formed over the years in this area and averages out their tracks.


Even if it doesn't grow it will dump plenty of rain over Central Mexico. This will lead to flooding, land and mudslides over the region.


Friday, August 16, 2013

Erin & Yucatan Low

Over the past few days we have been following two areas, Tropical Storm Erin in the Far Eastern Atlantic and an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. Both are very weak as of Friday morning.

Lets begin with the activity close to home.

The low has now moved west into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a highly disorganized system with most of the rain to the East of the center.

Models show the system moving NW and running into the jet stream in about 2 days. What happens next will dictate its future.

  • If it moves west like most of the models suggest, then there is a chance that this feature could grow and develop.
  • If it tracks due North, then the strong winds from the jet will shred whatever is left. The remnants could still produce heavy rain.



What does this mean for us?

The Water Vapor imagery gives us an idea of how much moisture is available with the low. The darker colors represent potentially heavy rain areas.

There is a clear spin in the middle of the Gulf caused by an upper low. This is helping to draw showers and storms away from the surface low and push it our way.

There is also a front stalled across the Southeast visible by the line of clouds moving west to east, this should trap the moisture here.

We will be watching for this set up over the weekend. If that moisture moving our way holds, it could bring spotty storms, however up to now, the rainfall has been minimal.

Tropical Storm in the Far Eastern Atlantic:
Then there is Tropical Storm Erin. looking very weak and highly disorganized.  Its present environment will keep it on life support for another 48 hours but after that it will run into drier air. NHC keeps it around until Wednesday night making a turn towards the open waters of the Atlantic. This system continues to be a nuisance for the shipping lanes.




Thursday, August 15, 2013

Tropical Storm Erin

Tropical Storm Erin was born early Thursday morning from a depression off the West Coast of Africa.
Satellite imagery suggests a good looking storm. There is plenty of banding at the surface giving it a more classical hurricane look, while outflow is well established in the upper levels.


The system is over 4000 miles away from South Florida so no need to worry about this one, it will only be a concern for the shipping lanes.


For the moment "Erin" is enjoying a favorable environment for growth with little shear and warm sea surface temperatures, but in 48 hours the party should come to an end as cooler waters lay in its path.


Over the next 5 days it will travel almost due West as high pressure pushes it in that direction.

Even though NHC does not expect "Erin" to grow much stronger than a storm, interests in the Lesser Antilles should watch it closely.

Areas such as Puerto Rico have been hit very hard with record setting rains, any additional activity and flooding could be an issue.

Meanwhile we are still eyeing an area of low pressure Southwest of Cuba. It has lost some of its punch overnight as it moves West over Belize.

Plenty of rain there could cause isolated flooding.  Heavy rain is also impacting Coastal Yucatan with torrential downpours.  NHC is now giving this Low, a 50% chance it could grow into a depression/storm over the next 2 days. That chance grows to 60% once it moves into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico.



Most models are in agreement that if anything were to develop here, it will move over the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

After that, models fan out with some moving the system into Mainland Mexico, others Texas, and even a few take it to Louisiana.






The moisture associated with this feature should keep us soggy this Thursday with mostly cloudy skies.

The rest of the forecast depends on the Low, if it moves away fast enough we could see a nice weekend but if it meanders then more rain can be expected.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Watching Two

August is starting to give us some activity in the tropics. We begin with two waves that a mere 24-48 hours ago were highly disorganized and now both are showing signs of development.

The first is in the Caribbean Sea:
This feature has dumped plenty of rain across Jamaica and Eastern Cuba.  It continues to travel west northwest with nearby observations indicating that a low pressure system may be forming.  Most of the heavy rainfall now sits between the Cayman Islands and Coastal Honduras.

NHC says this possible low has a 60-70% chance of turning into a depression or a tropical storm before it reaches land.

In the short term it is aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula. After that models fan out, some tracking the system towards the Gulf States and others pushing it into Mexico.

Local Impacts:
Now that the wave appears to be getting organized, it will wrap all the moisture around its center of circulation but some of it will escape and make its way into South Florida. How much will depend on how fast it gets its act together, regardless plan on some showers late tonight and a better chance for some tropical downpours on Thursday.


High pressure will dispense this system to the northwest where it will run into the jet stream over the Gulf.  What happens next is really up in the air.

It could:

  • Fall apart
  • Get bounced towards Texas, Louisiana, or even Florida's Panhandle
  • Get shoved back towards Mexico.

The second feature is almost 4 thousand miles away from Florida. 

This is already an area of low pressure just to the Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

It appears to be poised for additional growth. NHC gives it a 70-80% chance it could grow into a depression or storm anytime over the next 5 days.

It does have one huge obstacle ahead of it, some dry air and strong shear. It should run into that unfavorable wall in about 48 hours. It may spell the end of it. All we can do is watch and wait.

If it survives, most models place the system somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic in 120 hours.




Sunday, July 28, 2013

Old Dorian, Recon Mission Set for Sunday

A hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the remnants of Dorian today. NHC believes there is a small chance for regeneration.

The following is their message:

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED  TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY.

Huge roadblocks: 
First, their is another spin just to the Northwest of old Dorian.

This is an upper low and should help to keep the remnants at bay.

The upper low will remain in place for at least another 24-48 hours.




Second obstacle:
While the remnants of Dorian are producing more thunderstorms today than over the last 24 - 48 hours, it must still contend with a huge foe...strong upper level winds (shear) coming from the opposite direction.

The map to the right shows us where the shear can be found.

Right around the middle of the screen you'll find the small cloud area that is the remnant of Dorian.

Now focus on the orange lines starting over Florida, swooping down through Cuba into the Caribbean and then moving up just ahead of old Dorian. That is strong wind shear that should prevent it from growing again.

What to expect:

Puerto Rico: Will see on and off showers from the remnants of Dorian as the bulk of the moisture passes to the North.

Dominican Republic: Their weather office says the remnants will pass around 700 miles to the north, yet scattered storms may impact them tonight and tomorrow.

Haiti: As of this writing, their meteorological office is calling for a quiet weather pattern over the next 48 hours.

South Florida: This message comes from our local weather office.
AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...THE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME CONTINUES

TO BE THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE THIS OUTLOOK CHANGES GOING
FORWARD.


Friday, July 26, 2013

T.S. Dorian, good news-bad news

The Good News:

Over the last 24 hours, dry air has played a key role in weakening the tropical storm.

It looks very disorganized, and it most definitively lacks that standard cyclone look.

The dry air slot in the atmosphere should remain in place another 24 hours or so further depriving Dorian of the moist environment it needs to survive and grow.

It is still moving west/northwest at a steady clip not giving it a chance to soak up any heat energy from the ocean.


The Bad News:

Dorian may fall apart altogether over the next 48 hours bringing to an end this chapter, but if it survives, it still has the islands in its path.

NHC still places Dorian near the Leewards by Mon-Tue, being pushed there by the Bermuda high.
All we can do is watch.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

T.S. Dorian

Tropical Storm Dorian formed from a Low in the Far Eastern Atlantic. It struggled a bit late Wednesday night, but it appears to have overcome that hiccup early Thursday morning.


It is still very far away from any land.
It is around 3000 miles away from Florida. At the moment it is spinning towards the Middle of the Atlantic Ocean, heading due west, being pushed along by the Bermuda High. It should stay like this until Sunday sometime when it takes more of a Northwest turn as the high retreats just a tad.



How strong will Dorian get?
This is still uncertain. It is scheduled to move over warmer waters that could fuel its growth, but its also going to run into some stronger wind shear. All we can do is watch and wait.



Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Tropical Depression Four

Very early on Wednesday morning, NHC started issuing advisories on an area of Low Pressure very far away from home, Its in the Eastern Atlantic, roughly 3500 miles away from South Florida.

Top winds are around 35 mph and it is moving West at 20 mph.

As of 5am, it has a well defined center with nominal thunderstorm activity.

It is being pushed west by a huge dome of high pressure.

So what lays ahead?

  • For the time being TD4 is moving over warm waters with very little shear and should have a chance to become Tropical Storm Dorian.
  • But in a couple of days, it will run into drier air and some shear that should keep the system in check,  
  • Intensity forecasting is not an exact science, but NHC keeps the system with 45 mph winds over the next 5 days. In a week or so it may be close to the Lesser Antilles.


Plenty of time to watch it.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Chantal, what's next?

As of early Wednesday morning, Chantal is poorly organized with minimal tropical storm force winds. Some shear has taken its toll and its fast forward speed has not given it the chance to intensify, even traveling over the warm waters of the Caribbean.

Still, there are some t-storms trying to develop along the poorly defined center of circulation. This may be a last gasp measure to survive.

A recon mission will determine later today whether "Chantal" is still a tropical entity, it could very well have degenerated into nothing more than a wave.

If that's the case, stop here, and the blog is done.

But if it's still hanging around by Wednesday night, then we could see something of "Chantal" here by the weekend.

THE FOLLOWING IS ONLY IF CHANTAL HAS SURVIVED

  • It should make landfall near the Western tip of Haiti with some pockets of heavy rain that could result in flooding, land and mudslides.
  • It's next stop would be along Central Cuba, where it would dump more rain over the area. Here too there is another large mountain chain that could further weaken whatever is left of Chantal.
  • If its still with us by Friday morning, it could bring us rain over South Florida with breezy conditions for Saturday and Sunday.

The only fly in the ointment, would be that it must cross over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream Current to get here, and that could provide some fuel for growth.

As with any tropical system, just keep monitoring it and stay informed.

IF IT REMAINS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM: This is the forecast cone.


Tuesday, July 9, 2013

T.S. Chantal over the Lesser Antilles

Over the next 24 hours, "Chantal" will make a transition from an Atlantic storm to a Caribbean one. During this process it will impact the islands of the Lesser Antilles, with some wind and rain while possibly getting a little stronger as it moves over warmer waters.

:
Chantal is having a little trouble maintaining its shape due to how fast its traveling.  Still clipping along around 26 mph.

It lacks your typical "feeder bands" type of structure.

Most of the t-storm activity is along the burst of clouds seen in the Satellite loop.


Short term:

  • Chantal will impact the islands with winds of 50-60 mph, some rain, and heavy surf.
  • It will have a chance to grow when it moves into the warmer waters of the Caribbean Sea. Here it will start to slow down allowing it to absorb more heat energy from the water.  
  • This will be a danger as it could near hurricane strength as it approaches Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Long Run:

  • When it hits Hispaniola, it will dump plenty of rain leading to the threat of flooding, land and mudslides from Dominican Republic to Haiti.
  • It should also run into the highest terrain in the Caribbean, that being the 10 thousand feet tall mountains of "El Pico Duarte".
  • This peak will act as a huge wall disrupting its shape and weakening it considerably.
  • If it can survive this landfall, it may continue as a weaker system towards the Bahamas.




NHC has offered different forecasts after the clash with Hispaniola , due to the uncertainty of the outcome when it crosses over Dominican Republic and Haiti.

  • On Monday it suggested a weaker depression aiming for the Bahamas and South Florida.
  • Monday night it kept Chantal, as a Tropical Storm very close to South Florida over the weekend. 
  • Tuesday morning, they keep the possibility of Chantal remaining as a Tropical Storm over the Bahamas and parts of Coastal South Florida.  


Most models keep something near us by the Bahamas through the weekend.  If Chantal survives until then, the jet stream coming out of the Nation's midsection should help block whatever is here, away from most of Florida. All we can do is watch and hope for the best for our neighbors to the South.



These are the advisories in effect this Tuesday morning:


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS