As of Tuesday morning we are now tracking a brand new depression just east of the Lesser Antilles.
Tropical Depression 9, is a good looking system. There is good spiral banding around the storm. Plenty of t-storm activity is spotted around the center of circulation, and there is only limited shear to its north.
This shear should subside over the next 24-48 hours.
High pressure to the north is keeping this system on a W/NW track, but by the weekend some models suggest that strong winds will veer out of the Southeastern USA. This will force the Bermuda high to move east, away from Florida, and force TD 9 to slow down. This slow-down will allow TD 9 to grow stronger, it could be a Cat 2 by then.
As the high moves away, it opens a door in the atmosphere for the storm to take, and unfortunately, some of the models place the storm CLOSE TO FLORIDA sometime next week.
Watches and warning are already in effect for most of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, as well as parts of the Dominican Republic. Many more will be added over the next day or so.
This is what NHC is expecting over these areas:
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
NHC is sending out a recon plane this afternoon to get a better handle on the situation.
For South Florida, now is the time to prepare. Make sure you have all your supplies. Pick up a FREE channel 7 Map & Guide at your local Publix and follow all the tips and suggestions offered there to help you weather the storm.