Friday, August 3, 2012

Its getting active!

The weather office is busy following three areas in the Tropics, from activity near Florida, and the Caribbean, to the far Eastern Atlantic. Lets take them one at a time.

1) Disturbance near Florida.





NHC is looking at an area of clouds and rain near the Bahamas for possible development. They are giving it a small chance for growth but even if it doesn't develop, it will bring heavy rain to South Florida over the weekend.


Models are split on where it may end up with some taking it into the Gulf and others, into the Atlantic. Conditions remain unfavorable for growth.

With so much moisture around us, we can expect pockets of heavy rain from the Bahamas through South Florida, through the weekend and possibly into Monday.





2)  The second area is Tropical Storm Ernesto which is looking a little better on Saturday.

By Monday, conditions in the atmosphere will improve allowing it to get stronger.

It could become a hurricane by then, close  to the Cayman Islands.

Caribbean waters are very warm and this could allow Ernesto to intensify.






The long range cone pushes Ernesto into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Everyone from Jamaica, the Caymans, Western Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula should be on the lookout as rapid intensification could turn Ernesto into a very dangerous system.

If it impacts the Yucatan, heavy rain could lead to land and mud slides. We'll be following it carefully over the next few days.




3) Finally, there is a new Tropical Storm by the name of Florence, in the Far Eastern Atlantic. Its a few hundred miles Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and will continue to move west over the next few days.  You can barely make out the red dot on the far right of the image.  It should stay as a Tropical Storm  this weekend, but strong upper winds should weaken it by Monday.




Originally, most models kept it over the open waters, but the latest cone has it aiming for the Lesser Antilles in about 8-10 days.




Stay tuned for the very latest.

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