Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Isaac Aims for Hispaniola

Isaac will swing South of Puerto Rico this Thursday, but its sights are set on Dominican Republic and Haiti.



During the overnight hours, Isaac appeared to have gotten its act together. There is much more banding,  strong storms are developing along the center, and shear is relaxing . However, that center is hard to find.

There is plenty of information to convey from NHC, so here goes:



  • AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS MORNING HAS FOUND A POORLY DEFINED INNER CORE WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AROUND A CENTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT AN EARLIER NOAA RESEARCH MISSION INDICATED.
  •  RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND SAN JUAN ALSO INDICATE A POORLY DEFINED INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.




The bottom line is that Isaac remains as a Storm, but is expected to strengthen as it nears Hispaniola.



The cone suggests Isaac could be over us sometime late in the weekend, or early next week.

Here is what we can expect today, according to NHC:

  • TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.  



By Friday:

  • HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI ON FRIDAY.  


  • TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY.

Impacts:

  • MAXIMUM RAIN AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  
  • TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.




In the long haul:
Everything depends on where Isaac makes landfall. If it strikes Hispaniola, the high terrain there should slow it down and weaken it.  The down side to that is that it will dump allot of rain across Dom. Republic and Haiti causing dangerous floods along with land and mudslides.

It should emerge as Tropical storm and move into Cuba over the weekend.
Everyone in the area highlighted on day 5, should monitor this system carefully.


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