Friday, August 10, 2012

Cape Verde Season is here

The tropics are heating up. We are following five areas from Mexico through the Far Eastern Atlantic.

They are:

  • Ernesto over Mexico
  • Tropical Wave over Cuba
  • Remnants of Florence in Mid Atlantic
  • Tropical Depression 7 in Eastern Atlantic
  • Low pressure by the Cape Verde Islands.


Speaking of Cape Verde, with all this recent activity developing near that area, we can safely say Cape Verde Season is underway. This short season within a season runs from roughly August through the end of September. Lets give you a quick rundown of all the activity.

Ernesto: After making two landfalls over Mexico, one over the Yucatan as a hurricane and the other as a storm across Central Mexico, it has now dissipated. It continues to dump plenty of rain over the region. The remnants of Ernesto may emerge into the Eastern Pacific and have another shot at regeneration.



Tropical Wave over Cuba:  The area of clouds and rain near us is made up of two features. There is an upper low over Cuba and a tropical wave stretching from the Caribbean Sea north through the Bahamas. The low will drag the moisture from the wave here, and if it doesn't fall apart, we could be soggy from today through Sunday.



This is what the local NWS office is saying:

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO

SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AND GUSTY WINDS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

FLOODING: AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA, LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.


You can keep track of the rain here:




Next is Florence, once a proud tropical storm, it weakened so much a few days ago that NHC no longer issued advisories on it. But since then, its been trying to come back firing up t-storms every so often. It has been hovering around a 10% chance for regeneration but as of this writing, NHC has it down to zero. Right now it is just a small area of clouds to the north of Puerto Rico.



Tropical Depression 7 could be an Ernesto Redux.  It appears to be gaining strength and could become Tropical Storm Gordon soon. It will threaten the Lesser Antilles, and be near the Yucatan in about 5-7 days. All our friends throughout the Caribbean should monitor TD 7 closely.



Finally, there is an area of low pressure next to the Cape Verde Islands. NHC is giving this feature a 50% chance that it could become the next system to track. Most model runs however, keep whatever develops in the open waters of the Atlantic and only a worry for shipping lanes.





Plenty to follow.

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