Thursday, May 31, 2012

Caribbean Connection

Rain has moved into South Florida, and the threat for more exists through Sunday. The radar image shows where it has rained over the last 3 hours. It was a soggy start to Thursday, and more is expected.






The same upper winds that pushed "Beryl" out to Sea, are now moving into the Gulf of Mexico. They will draw up moisture form the Western Caribbean Sea while at the same time, a huge area of high pressure over the Bahamas will trap the rain over us. This Caribbean Connection will keep us rather soggy for awhile.

Models hint as much as 2-4 inches of rain associated with this moisture, on top of the already saturated ground, this could cause street flooding.  I wouldn't be surprised if NWS issues a flood advisory of some sort in the next 12 hours.




So far, we have had 2 tropical systems before the start of hurricane season. (T.S. Beryl was a record setter- check previous post) The season officially starts June 1st. To find out what we can expect and to prepare for whatever mother nature throws our way, WSVN has prepared a 1 hour special titled,"Surviving a Storm". It will air Friday June 1st, at 8 pm.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Record Setting Beryl


When Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall in Jacksonville shortly after midnight Monday morning, it set a record for the strongest tropical storm to hit land before the beginning of the hurricane season. At that time,  top winds were at 70 mph. Historical data suggests, Beryl was stronger than Subtropical Storm Alpha from 1972, which had max winds of about 60 mph. It was also stronger than an unnamed storm in 1908, that had top winds of about 65 mph.

Since making landfall, Beryl has been drenching the Southeast with rainfall amounts in the 6-8 inch range so far. This has caused pockets of flooding, but it has been beneficial rain as the region has been dealing with a shortage.

As Beryl nears the coast again, it is possible it could re-intensify as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. 

This heat energy is what tropical systems use as fuel. Late data suggests wind speeds are up from 30 mph to 35 mph.

Once Beryl moves off shore, it should only be a worry for shipping lanes.



Locally, Beryl has helped push in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico leading to our afternoon strong t-storms. As it moves away, this activity should wind down, but not for long. 

The image to the right,   shows bright red spots in the Western Caribbean Sea, those are areas of heavy rain. 

As Beryl moves away, it will create a vacuum over us drawing in some of that moisture which could lead to more storms starting as early as Thursday and sticking around through the weekend.

Stay tuned to the very latest. By the way, Hurricane season officially starts June 1st.  We have prepared a 1 hour special, "Surviving a Storm"' full of handy tips and suggestions on how to weather the 2012 season. It will air June 1st at 8pm.





Monday, May 28, 2012

Beryl made landfall in Florida


Beryl made landfall at Jacksonville Beach at 12:15 am, Monday. It is now weakening and moving inland. Top winds have come down from a strength of 70 mph at landfall , to 40 mph now. The center is roughly
50 miles west of Jacksonville.

Here is live radar





What to expect:
Winds:
They will continue to weaken with the strongest winds found in the feeder bands spinning along the coast. 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA area. 

It should weaken to depression later today.


Rainfall:
The entire landfall site and neighboring areas may see a total between 4-6 inches with localized amounts of up to 12".


Future:
Beryl will get pushed back out to the Atlantic on Wednesday, by strong upper level winds. At the same time, high pressure to its East moves away, opening the door for Beryl's exit. It will continue to cause choppy seas and high surf.

Once back over open waters, it will move over a warm energy source, so there is the possibility it could get stronger again. It will remain a worry for shipping lanes.

It will also pick up speed moving into the Cold waters of the Northern Atlantic by the end of the week. 
By then, it will lose its tropical characteristics and be classified Extratropical.



Locally:
Because of Beryl's spin, our winds are coming out of the Southwest. They will push moisture our way clashing with the east coast breeze. The result will be strong thunderstorms developing once again over the Everglades and heading east towards Broward and Miami Dade.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Beryl making landfall

Beryl making landfall. Here is live radar




Beryl is now a full fledged tropical system, upgraded from Subtropical to Tropical Storm status earlier today, now with wind speeds up to 70 mph.


It is spinning roughly 35 miles E/SE of Jacksonville, FL. Moving west at 10 mph. 


  • Tropical Storm force winds extend out from center up to 115 miles
  • A Tropical Storm Waring is now in effect from Volusia County in Florida north to Edisto Beach So. Carolina.
  • Everyone along the Warning area should remain vigilant as Beryl nears the coast.
  • Once it makes landfall it will quickly lose steam, make a sharp u-turn, and head back to where it is right now in about 3-5 days.

What to expect:
Winds:
They may get to tropical storm strength 39 mph and above as it nears the coast between Northern Florida and South Carolina. A warning has been issued for this area.

Storm Surge:
The combination of the push of water caused by Beryl and high tide will cause some flooding along the coast. The water could rise anywhere between 1-4 feet, with the highest level right where Beryl makes landfall and just to the north. Here the surge will bring large waves leading to coastal flooding. Of course the local waters will be choppy, boating is not recommended.

Rainfall:
The Southeastern Coast could see accumulations anywhere between 4-6 inches with localized totals of up to 12".



The tail end of the Subtropical storm will also move west. This tail is loaded with moisture and could bring us a chance for storms both Sunday and Monday.

Beryl Stronger, now a Storm




Beryl is now a full fledged tropical system, upgraded from Subtropical to Tropical Storm status earlier today, now with wind speeds up to 65 mph.

Satellite imagery shows more thunderstorms around the center of circulation

It is spinning roughly 85 miles E/SE of Jacksonville, FL. Moving west at 10 mph. At this speed it should arrive near Jacksonville after midnight.


  • Tropical Storm force winds extend out from center up to 90 miles
  • There are more storms trying to wrap around the center.
  • Most of the heavy rain is to the east of the center
  • A Tropical Storm Waring is now in effect from Volusia County in Florida north to Edisto Beach So. Carolina.
  • Everyone along the Warning area should remain vigilant as Beryl nears the coast.
  • Once it makes landfall it will quickly lose steam, make a sharp u-turn, and head back to where it is right now in about 3-5 days.

What to expect:
Winds:
They may get to tropical storm strength 39 mph and above as it nears the coast between Northern Florida and South Carolina. A warning has been issued for this area.

Storm Surge:
The combination of the push of water caused by Beryl and high tide will cause some flooding along the coast. The water could rise anywhere between 1-4 feet, with the highest level right where Beryl makes landfall and just to the north. Here the surge will bring large waves leading to coastal flooding. Of course the local waters will be choppy, boating is not recommended.

Rainfall:
The Southeastern Coast could see accumulations anywhere between 4-6 inches with localized totals of up to 12".



The tail end of the Subtropical storm will also move west. This tail is loaded with moisture and could bring us a chance for storms both Sunday and Monday.



Beryl headed for Florida / Georgia Border


Hurricane hunters are in the system right now.
  • Air Force recon data within past hour to NE of center of Beryl found max surface winds increased to 60 mph.
  • It will move SW and be near the warning area by Sunday night/Monday morning
  • Tropical Storm force winds extend out from center up to 90 miles
  • There are some more storms trying to wrap around the center.
  • Most of the heavy rain is to the northeast of the center


Beryl is about 125 miles E from Jacksonville, FL with 55-60 mph winds.

A Tropical Storm Waring is now in effect from Volusia County in Florida north to Edisto Beach So. Carolina.

Everyone along the Warning area should remain vigilant as Beryl nears the coast.

Beryl is starting to move out of the Gulf Stream and over cooler shelf waters, so it has a very small window of opportunity if it wants to intensify.

Once it makes landfall it will quickly lose steam.




What to expect:
Winds:
They may get to tropical storm strength 39 mph and above as it nears the coast between Northern Florida and South Carolina. A warning has been issued for this area.

Storm Surge:
The combination of the push of water caused by Beryl and high tide will cause some flooding along the coast. The water could rise anywhere between 1-3 feet, with the highest level right where Beryl makes landfall and just to the north. Here the surge will bring large waves leading to coastal flooding. Of course the local waters will be choppy, boating is not recommended.

Rainfall:
The Southeastern Coast could see accumulations anywhere between 3-6 inches.

So you ask, "What's a subtropical storm?".

A sub-tropical cyclone is a low-pressure system existing in the tropical or subtropical latitudes (anywhere from the equator to about 50°N) that has characteristics of both tropical cyclones and mid-latitude (or extra tropical) cyclones. Therefore, many of these cyclones exist in a weak to moderate horizontal temperature gradient region (like mid-latitude cyclones), but also receive much of their energy from convective clouds (like tropical cyclones).



The tail end of the Subtropical storm will also move west. This tail is loaded with moisture and could bring us a chance for storms both Sunday and Monday.



Saturday, May 26, 2012

Riders of the Storm (Final)

Here is the latest as of Saturday night

  • Hurricane hunters found winds of 50 mph
  • It will move SW and be near the warning area by Sunday
  • Little change in intensity is expected
  • Tropical Storm force winds extend out from center up to 90 miles
  • There are some storms within the center, but nothing appears to be impressive.


Beryl is about 290 miles E from Jacksonville, FL with 50 mph winds.

It is battling upper level winds that had been shearing it apart.

Everyone along the Southeast coast should remain vigilant as Beryl nears the coast.




What to expect:
Winds:
They may get to tropical storm strength 39 mph and above as it nears the coast between Northern Florida and South Carolina. A warning has been issued for this area.

Storm Surge:
The combination of the push of water caused by Beryl and high tide will cause some flooding along the coast. The water could rise anywhere between 1-3 feet, with the highest level right where Beryl makes landfall and just to the north. Here the surge will bring large waves leading to coastal flooding. Of course the local waters will be choppy, boating is not recommended.

Rainfall:
The Southeastern Coast could see accumulations anywhere between 3-6 inches.

So you ask, "What's a subtropical storm?".

A sub-tropical cyclone is a low-pressure system existing in the tropical or subtropical latitudes (anywhere from the equator to about 50°N) that has characteristics of both tropical cyclones and mid-latitude (or extra tropical) cyclones. Therefore, many of these cyclones exist in a weak to moderate horizontal temperature gradient region (like mid-latitude cyclones), but also receive much of their energy from convective clouds (like tropical cyclones).



The tail end of the Subtropical storm will also move west. This tail is loaded with moisture and could bring us a chance for storms both Sunday and Monday.




Recon to investigate Beryl


An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate Sub Tropical Storm Beryl this afternoon to determine the health of this feature.

The National Hurricane Center classified the low East off the Carolinas as a subtropical system late Friday night, by the name of Beryl. 

So you ask, "What's a subtropical storm?".

A sub-tropical cyclone is a low-pressure system existing in the tropical or subtropical latitudes (anywhere from the equator to about 50°N) that has characteristics of both tropical cyclones and mid-latitude (or extra tropical) cyclones. Therefore, many of these cyclones exist in a weak to moderate horizontal temperature gradient region (like mid-latitude cyclones), but also receive much of their energy from convective clouds (like tropical cyclones).

Beryl is about 330 miles E/NE from Jacksonville, FL with 45 mph winds. It is not a healthy looking system as strong upper winds are shearing it apart. Still, some thunderstorm activity persists.



Beryl will begin to move west and make landfall somewhere across North Florida or along the Southeast Coast as far north as South Carolina. Watches and warnings are in effect for that area.


The tail end of the Subtropical storm will also move west. This tail is loaded with moisture and could bring us a chance for storms both Sunday and Monday.

Subtropical Storm Beryl

The National Hurricane Center classified the low East off the Carolinas as a subtropical system, by the name of Beryl. So you ask, "What's a subtropical storm?".

A sub-tropical cyclone is a low-pressure system existing in the tropical or subtropical latitudes (anywhere from the equator to about 50°N) that has characteristics of both tropical cyclones and mid-latitude (or extra tropical) cyclones. Therefore, many of these cyclones exist in a weak to moderate horizontal temperature gradient region (like mid-latitude cyclones), but also receive much of their energy from convective clouds (like tropical cyclones).

Beryl is about 245 miles away from Charleston, SC with 45 mph winds. It is not a healthy looking system as strong upper winds are shearing it apart. Still, some thunderstorm activity persists.



Beryl will begin to move west and make landfall somewhere across North Florida or along the Southeast Coast as far north as South Carolina. Watches and warnings are in effect for that area.



The tail end of the Subtropical storm will also move west. This tail is loaded with moisture and could bring us a chance for storms both Sunday and Monday.


Thursday, May 24, 2012

Southeast Weekend Worry

Nasty weather across South Florida on Thursday could lead to Tropical Trouble down the road for the Southeast.


On Thursday an area of low pressure swept through Miami Dade and Broward counties with heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Fowey Rocks, just offshore Key Biscayne,  registered the strongest winds with a 71 mph gust.  The low quickly pushed through the Northwestern Bahamas with gusty winds over Grand Bahama, and an alleged tornado touching down in Abaco.

This area of clouds and rain is being monitored by NHC. This is what they have to say:

The low is located near the Northern Bahamas, looking better organized. Environmental conditions are improving so that a sub tropical or tropical system could develop in the next 48 hours. It is moving NE at 15 mph and it could eventually move across the Southeastern US in the long term.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS
WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.





As this low meanders back towards Georgia, Northern Florida or the Carolinas, the tail end could sneak back across our area and bring us a few showers/t-storms throughout the holiday weekend. I'm not expecting a washout but could see some isolated pockets of rain.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

New INVEST 94

There is an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that NHC is investigating a little deeper. This feature is known as Invest 94.


On the Satellite imagery you can see a line of clouds that extends from the Nicaraguan/Honduran border northeast through Cuba and the Bahamas. The red dots represent the strongest and heaviest rain. South Florida is just on the fringes, yet we've had torrential rains across the area.






This is what NHC is saying regarding this area of clouds and rain.
The low is centered near Lat: 17N Lon: 86W , or just off the Nicaraguan Coast. There are scattered showers sitting just east of the low.

Our observations suggest:
There is plenty of moisture in the Caribbean Sea, and whether this feature organizes or not, the rain is expected to stick around South Florida over the next few days.

I want to show you the VERY EARLY model runs so that you get an idea of where this feature may go IF it develops. No need to worry now, but its good to check back from time to time for the very latest.


"Alberto" is done



What once was Tropical Storm "Alberto", is now in the history books. The last advisory was written Tuesday morning.  


The latest image to the left shows how the upper clouds are being ripped away from the low level swirl.

The near 35 mph winds leftover from the remnants of this area of low pressure will only be a worry for the shipping lanes.







Sunday, May 20, 2012

"Alberto" trying to hang on

Tropical Storm "Alberto", is roughly 225 miles East of Jacksonville, FL with top winds of 40 mph.  It is now moving East with an eventual turn to the northeast over the next 24 hours.



The latest image to the lest shows how the upper clouds are being ripped away from the low level swirl.

It is a small system barely hanging on to tropical storm status. A recon plane is scheduled to check up on the patient this afternoon.

Even though "Alberto" is sitting over the Gulf Stream, a great source of heat energy, it is surrounded by very dry air and its chances for strengthening further are almost non existent.

Strong upper level winds are also shearing the storm keeping it from getting stronger.  Most of the gusty winds are offshore the Florida coast.




"Alberto" should at least remain as a Tropical Storm for a day or so as it sits over warm Atlantic waters.

What to Expect: 
Once strong upper winds begin to push "Alberto" away, they will weaken it and move it northeast into the Western Atlantic, where it will remain a worry for shipping lanes.


WSVN will air a hurricane preparedness special on June 1st. See you then.

"Alberto" moves very little

Tropical Storm "Alberto" is NOT looking healthy this evening.  A recon plane could not find winds  stronger than 40 - 45 mph. It is barely a tropical storm battling dry air and upper level shear.

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Savannah River south to the Santee River in South Carolinahas been cancelled.







The satellite imagery above gives you a good idea of "Alberto's" health.  There is a cluster of t-storms along a line stretching from the coast to inland portions of Georgia Very little rain is being reported, and any strong winds are sitting off shore.

What to expect:
Most models say "Alberto" will stall along the coast Sunday night. It should not get stronger as dry air sits just to its north and strong upper level winds out of the W/SW are shearing the system apart.







Models suggest that in about 24 hours, strong upper level winds will shoot out of the East Coast, and nudge "Alberto" out to open water.  By then, it could have lost its tropical characteristic, but still be a worry for marine interests.


.

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Alberto: 1st Tropical Storm of 2012

Not only is "Alberto" the first tropical system this year, but is the earliest  tropical storm to form before the official start of hurricane season.  The previous early start was "Ana" , between April 20th-24th , 2003.

"Alberto" sits about 120 miles South of Cape Fear, North Carolina.  As of early Sunday morning, its top winds were at 50 mph and moving to the Southwest at a 6 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Savannah river to the Santee river along the South Carolinas coast.

What is surrounding "Alberto"?
There is a dry air mass on its North and Western sides and this should keep it from strengthening too much even though it is sitting over the warm waters of the Gulf stream. If it does get stronger, it should be just slight intensification.

Satellite imagery reveals that the low level center is removed from the strongest storms. This is a sign of a system still trying to get its footing.

There is also high pressure to its East and another area of low pressure situated to the Northeast.


So where is it headed?
All the features named above will steer "Alberto" towards the Carolinas for about the next day or so. Because of this, watches and warnings may be issued for portions of the Mid-Atlantic States.  After 24 hours, everything moves East and "Alberto" will quickly race out into the open waters of the Atlantic and become a worry for shipping lanes.






Stay tuned for the very latest on this early start to hurricane season.












New "Invest"

Low pressure off the East Coast, being watched by NHC.

A quick glance:
The image below shows a blob of clouds and rain over the Carolinas, this is an area of low pressure being monitored by the Hurricane Center.  It is starting to look more and more like a tropical low. It is siting over 100 miles Southeast of Myrtle Beach, and is expected to remain there over the next few days. It will continue to produce copious amounts of rain. This system could become a depression or a tropical storm over the next 24 hours.

There is another area of low pressure (The swirl east of the Carolias), the tail from this one, extends South through the Bahamas and then West over South Florida.


Shades of reds and oranges indicated pockets of heavy rain.


What to expect:
We should see more rain over the weekend as this "tail" will barely move east.  Everyone from South Florida through the Bahamas will get on and off t-storms. Things may improve by early next week.

This feature could be a big rainmaker for the East Coast

Where is the low by Myrtle Beach going? 
A quick look at some of the early model runs, suggests this feature will meander along the Mid-Atlantic states before the jet-stream pushes it out to the Northern Atlantic.  Because this area is of interest to the National Hurricane Center, it is being deemed as "Invest 93". This means it is an area they would like to "INVESTigate" further. NHC is giving this feature a medium chance for development as of Saturday morning... a 50% chance.

We'll keep you posted.

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Pre-Season System

Hurricane season doesn't officially start until June, yet NHC is already keeping tabs on a disturbance way out in the Atlantic. This area of clouds and rain should only be a worry for shipping lanes, but is does serve as a reminder that we should all be getting ready.

So here is the feature:  It's around 460 miles Southwest of the Azores in the Far Eastern Atlantic.  NHC says there is some potential for this to grow stronger over the next few days, but even if it does, it should bother no one .

It looked better on Saturday, this Mother's Day it is getting more and more disorganized and NHC is lowering its chances for development from 40% down to 20%.







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TC Activity



The models are fairly consistent that it will remain over open waters.





This is the time of year we encourage everyone to prepare. Even though most long range outlooks suggest a near normal season, it only takes one.  In 1992, we only had one storm that struck South Florida, and that was "Andrew".

The channel 7 hurricane map and guide is full of helpful reminders and handy tips to help you survive a storm. You should be able to pick up your free copy at Publix, shortly.

Meanwhile, hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins May 15th, and they are also eyeing a potential system.  This one is located 600 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. It has a good chance for growth . It should remain away from land.




TC Activity